Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
Kraft Heinz (KHC)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.32-0.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.07 → 2.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KHC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance between $1.98 and $2.10 | Management keeps 2026 EPS guidance near $2.04 per share. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EPS guidance falls below $1.98 for 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
KHC is a mature consumer-staples business with a recovery-oriented multi-year view, rather than a clear growth story. The thesis is on watch: its signal recently improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry group.
KHC is described as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear cautious. The valuation signal is marked justified, and fragility is low, but the evidence does not explain how much of the weak operating outlook is already reflected.
Near term, management has reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted earnings guidance, while second-quarter organic sales fell about 1.3%; its $600 million investment has not yet brought top-line growth. Free cash flow was strong in the quarter, but continued profitable growth depends on improving sales and execution, and the business has a history of a deep earnings miss.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether investment and management execution can turn persistent focus on profitable growth into stronger sales. Near term, a guidance reversal after the recent raise would damage credibility; weaker job growth could also weigh on consumer-staples companies, while strong results and guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, KHC’s case rests on converting strong cash generation into renewed profitable growth, with weak sales and uneven execution still the main constraints. The signal has improved, but the long-term thesis remains on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow rose 16% to $3.7 billion in 2025. |
| Intact |
| Free Cash Flow falls below $3.2 billion or capital returned falls below $2.0 billion in 2025 |
Free cash flow: $893M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Free Cash Flow >= $3.7 billion and capital returned >= $2.3 billion in 2025. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026893,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Return to profitable growth with investments in marketing, sales, and R&D | A primary condition in Kraft Heinz's published investment case. The stated target is Invest $600 million in marketing, sales, and R&D by 2025-Q4. | Improving | Adjusted Operating Income declines more than 5% below $4.7 billion in 2025 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Our 2026 operating plan to turn around the U.S. business and accelerate growth internationally is on track,” said Steve Cahillane, CEO of Kraft Heinz.” “We are ahead of plan and remain focused on our ultimate goal to return the company to volume-led, sustainable and profitable growth.”” Revenue was $6.115 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.08 → $2.06 · observed estimates
$24.57B → $24.69B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.08 | $24,571,043,056 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.08 | $24,571,043,056 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.08 | $24,584,114,484 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.08 | $24,584,114,484 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.08 | $24,584,114,484 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.08 | $24,584,114,484 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.08 | $24,584,114,484 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.08 | $24,584,114,484 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.08 | $24,584,114,484 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.08 | $24,584,114,484 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.08 | $24,584,114,484 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.08 | $24,584,114,484 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.08 | $24,584,114,484 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.08 | $24,584,114,484 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.07 | $24,677,851,166 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.07 | $24,677,851,166 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.07 | $24,677,851,166 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.07 | $24,677,851,166 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.07 | $24,677,851,166 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.07 | $24,677,851,166 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.07 | $24,677,851,166 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.07 | $24,677,851,166 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.07 | $24,677,851,166 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.07 | $24,677,851,166 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.07 | $24,677,851,166 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.07 | $24,677,851,166 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.07 | $24,692,344,033 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.06 | $24,690,128,111 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.06 | $24,690,128,111 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.06 | $24,690,128,111 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.06 | $24,690,128,111 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.06 | $24,690,128,111 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.06 | $24,690,128,111 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.06 | $24,690,128,111 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.06 | $24,690,128,111 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.06 | $24,690,128,111 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.06 | $24,690,128,111 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.06 | $24,690,128,111 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.06 | $24,690,128,111 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.06 | $24,688,985,254 | 11 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.