Kraft Heinz (KHC)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.85-2.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Maintain 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance between $1.98 and $2.10: EPS $2.06 vs $1.98-$2.10 target.
Kraft Heinz invests $600 million to grow sales and profits. Free cash flow rose 16% to $3.7 billion in 2025. The company returned $2.3 billion to shareholders last year. Management keeps 2026 EPS guidance near $2.04 per share.
Profit fell 11.5% in 2025, showing growth struggles. Revenue is shrinking slightly. Key executives left recently. Inflation and new diet trends may hurt sales.
The stock trades about 21% below our fair value near $32. Analysts expect about 1% revenue decline. Our fair value is well above the Street median of $22.
Breaks if: Adjusted EPS guidance falls below $1.98 for 2026
Maintain 2026 full-year Adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $2.03 to $2.09 despite challenging operating environment.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround scenario. The company is focused on returning to profitable growth while managing free cash flow and capital returns, but recent financial performance has been weak.
The current valuation suggests that the market views Kraft Heinz as relatively cheap compared to its peers. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may be anticipating some challenges ahead.
Management has consistently emphasized the importance of returning to profitable growth, but organic net sales have declined recently. While free cash flow remains strong, the overall trajectory shows limited progress in top-line growth.
The long-term thesis hinges on the company's ability to manage guidance effectively and respond to sector trends. Key factors include inflation dynamics and performance from sector peers that could influence Kraft Heinz's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a reaffirmation of 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance. Kraft Heinz's increased R&D spending aims to drive innovation and potential volume recovery. Concerns about weaker growth expectations in the packaged food sector remain, but they do not change the overall outlook.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance in a narrow range of $2.03 to $2.09 as of 2026-Q2, consistent with prior guidance. This reflects a stable outlook despite a challenging operating environment. The trajectory shows consistent reaffirmation with limited change in guidance.
“The Company now expects Adjusted EPS in the range of $2.03 to $2.09 for 2026.”
“The Company is reaffirming its 2026 outlook with Adjusted EPS expected in the range of $1.98 to $2.10.”
“The Company expects Adjusted EPS in the range of $1.98 to $2.10 for 2026.”
Breaks if: Free Cash Flow falls below $3.2 billion or capital returned falls below $2.0 billion in 2025
Breaks if: Adjusted Operating Income declines more than 5% below $4.7 billion in 2025
Over the next 1 to 3 years, Kraft Heinz's performance will depend on its execution against stated priorities and external economic factors. Not investment advice.