Kraft Heinz (KHC)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.32-0.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KHC — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-10-06
Executive Vice President — Angel S. Willis: The resignation of a senior officer (EVP, Global General Counsel) is a genuine departure, but the voluntary nature and lack of a named successor in the excerpt suggest a standard executive transition rather than a crisis.
Why it matters: Kraft Heinz plans to move its stock from Nasdaq to the NYSE. A clear transfer date and completed move would confirm the change is proceeding.
Supportive ifThe company or NYSE confirms the common stock has begun trading on the NYSE.
Worry ifThe company delays or cancels the transfer. Or Nasdaq trading continues without a stated transfer date.
Why it matters: Emerging Markets organic sales rose 8.5% in Q2, while total company sales fell. Continued growth would show strength in this part of the business.
Supportive ifQ3 Emerging Markets organic net sales grow at least 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 Emerging Markets organic net sales are flat or lower year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 organic sales fell 1.3%, and volume-mix fell 2.6 points. A better Q3 result would show that sales are gaining strength.
Watch forQ3 organic net sales are flat or higher than a year ago. Volume-mix is zero or positive.
Also watch forQ3 organic net sales fall more than 2% year over year, or volume-mix drops more than 2 points.
Why it matters: North America volume-mix fell 3.8 points in Q2. A smaller decline would show that demand is improving in the company’s largest segment.
Watch forQ3 North America volume and mix decline by less than 1 point or turn positive.
Also watch forQ3 North America volume-mix falls 3 points or more.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$122 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $300 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,093 loss on $10,000 · 20.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company raised its free cash flow conversion outlook to about 110%. Cash flow supports its dividend and debt plans.
Watch forFull-year free cash flow conversion is at least 100%.
Also watch forFull-year free cash flow conversion falls below 100%.