Kraft Heinz (KHC)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.85-2.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KHC — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-08-26
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On August 26, 2026, The Kraft Heinz Company (the “Company”), acting pursuant to authorization from its Board of Directors, determined to voluntarily withdraw the listing of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.01 per share (“Common Stock”) from The Nasdaq Global Select Market (“Nasdaq”) and transfer the listing to the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”). The Company expects that listing a…
Why it matters: Management's ability to improve the U.S. business is key for growth and profit.
Supportive ifManagement shares a clear plan. It includes measurable targets for better U.S. business performance.
Worry ifNo clear plan or continued poor performance metrics from the U.S. segment.
Why it matters: Free Cash Flow conversion is key for capital return and debt management. A strong conversion supports financial health.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow conversion exceeds 110% for the year.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow conversion drops below 100% for the year.
Why it matters: A further decline in Organic Net Sales would signal ongoing struggles in growth. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifManagement lowers the Organic Net Sales guidance. It is now worse than -2% for 2026.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps or raises the Organic Net Sales guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: If management keeps this guidance, it shows they trust earnings will stay steady. If they don't, it might mean bigger problems.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms Adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $2.03 to $2.09.
Worry ifManagement lowers the Adjusted EPS guidance from the current range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$143 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $306 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,977 loss on $10,000 · 19.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Falling below this EPS threshold would indicate deeper earnings challenges. This could impact market perception.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported below $2.03 for 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS remains at or above $2.03 for 2026.
Why it matters: Free Cash Flow growth is key for capital return and debt management. Sustained growth supports financial health.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow for Q2 exceeds $1 billion, showing strong cash generation.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow for Q2 falls below $900 million, indicating potential cash flow issues.
Why it matters: This Tender Offer helps manage debt and improve cash flow. Completing it shows financial stability.
Supportive ifThe company completes the Tender Offer by buying the most Notes by June 5, 2026.
Worry ifThe Tender Offer fails to meet the maximum purchase amount or is canceled before the deadline.
Why it matters: This metric shows if Kraft Heinz can return to profitable growth. A decline worse than -2.0% indicates ongoing challenges.
Worry ifQ3 organic net sales decline worse than -2.0% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic net sales decline better than -1.5% year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings miss can affect investor confidence and future guidance. It's crucial to monitor.
Worry ifManagement talks about the earnings miss and shares a clear plan to recover next.
Less concerning ifManagement does not address the earnings miss, which hurts investor confidence more.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can impact how a company runs. Stability helps keep investor trust.
Worry ifKraft Heinz names a new executive to replace Cory Onell, who recently left.
Less concerning ifNo new leader has been chosen. This creates ongoing uncertainty in leadership.
Why it matters: A drop in Free Cash Flow could limit capital return and investments. This would signal financial strain.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow reported below $1.5 billion for the full year.
Less concerning ifFree Cash Flow remains above $1.5 billion for the full year.
Why it matters: Stable leadership is key. It helps Kraft Heinz grow and handle challenges.
Worry ifNew leadership appointments are made. These strengthen the management team.
Less concerning ifMore executives leave the company. This shows problems in leadership.
Why it matters: Managing Free Cash Flow is key for Kraft Heinz's financial health. Changes can impact investments.
Watch forManagement gives a good update on Free Cash Flow expectations in the next earnings call.
Also watch forManagement reports a drop in Free Cash Flow expectations during the earnings call.
Why it matters: Improving market share trends would support the company's goal of returning to profitable growth. It shows that investments in brands are working.
Supportive ifManagement says there is a big improvement in U.S. market share trends.
Worry ifManagement reports continued declines in U.S. market share trends.
Why it matters: Free Cash Flow trends show how Kraft Heinz manages money and pays back shareholders.
Supportive ifIf Free Cash Flow increases beyond $3.7 billion, it shows strong cash generation.
Worry ifIf Free Cash Flow drops from $3.7 billion, it may show cash management problems.