Kimco Realty (KIM)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.60-1.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KIM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
KIM — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, Kimco Realty Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector speeds up, it may benefit Kimco's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is starting to speed up again toward past highs.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down or stays the same.
Why it matters: Lower lease spreads may signal weakening demand and impact future revenue growth.
Worry ifBlended pro-rata cash rent spreads on new leases reported below 24%.
Less concerning ifBlended pro-rata cash rent spreads on new leases reported at or above 24%.
Why it matters: A smaller increase may show cash flow problems or a change in spending.
Worry ifDividend growth is below 10% year-over-year for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifDividend growth is at or above 10% year-over-year for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An increase would reflect confidence in cash flow and commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a cash dividend increase for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo announcement of a cash dividend increase for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is financially strong. This helps build trust with investors.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend per share that is the same or higher than before.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend per share or suspends it.
Why it matters: A new buyback shows confidence in the company's value. It shows good capital management.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new share buyback program in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo announcement of a new share buyback program in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The notes offering may affect Kimco's capital structure and share buyback plans. This could influence investor sentiment.
Watch forKimco uses at least $125 million from the notes to repurchase shares within 30 days.
Also watch forKimco does not repurchase shares or uses less than $125 million from the notes.
Why it matters: Issuing these notes may change Kimco's capital structure. This can affect its financial flexibility.
Watch forSuccessful use of proceeds for share buybacks or strategic investments.
Also watch forProceeds are not used well or raise debt concerns.
Why it matters: How well this offering does will affect Kimco's money options and its capital setup.
Watch forThe offering raises over $500 million. This helps improve cash flow.
Also watch forThe offering does not raise the target amount. This limits money options.
Why it matters: A drop below this threshold would indicate weaker earnings performance.
Worry ifFFO per diluted share reported below $1.81 for 2026.
Less concerning ifFFO per diluted share reported at or above $1.81 for 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows a commitment to shareholder returns. It also shows financial health.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at or above $0.26 for Q2 2026.
Worry ifDividend per share drops below $0.26 for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong leasing activity helps revenue growth. It also boosts occupancy rates, which are key for Kimco.
Supportive ifLeasing activity increases by more than 5% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Worry ifLeasing activity decreases or grows less than 5% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend is important. It helps build trust with investors and keeps income steady.
Watch forKimco announces a dividend per share of at least $0.20.
Also watch forKimco cuts the dividend per share below $0.18.
Why it matters: Higher leasing activity shows strong demand. It helps keep occupancy rates up.
Supportive ifLeasing activity exceeds 2.5 million square feet in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLeasing activity falls below 2 million square feet in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision may change interest rates. This could affect Kimco's costs and investment plans.
Watch forFOMC decision leads to a rate cut or maintains rates, supporting REIT valuations.
Also watch forFOMC decision raises rates. This can hurt REIT values and increase borrowing costs.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the real estate sector.
Supportive ifReal estate sector revenue growth rises above 8% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Occupancy rates show how much people want to rent Kimco's properties. Higher rates mean more rental income.
Supportive ifPro-rata leased occupancy is more than 96.3% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifPro-rata leased occupancy is less than 96.3% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in revenue growth, impacting future cash flow and dividends.
Worry ifSame property NOI growth reported below 2.5% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifSame property NOI growth reported at or above 2.5% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An early dividend increase shows strong cash flow. It also shows management's confidence.
Supportive ifA dividend increase over 12% before the usual time is a good sign.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced before the usual time is a bad sign.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$75 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $184 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,270 loss on $10,000 · 12.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.