Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Kemper Corporation (KMPR)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.76+5.89%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.08 → 4.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KMPR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
earnings per share at or above $1.98 in FY 2026 | Analysts expect earnings per share near $2.00 for 2026 and revenue growth around 3%. | Broken | EPS falls below $1.98 in FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $-7.90 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.21 USD per share in Q4 2026 (annualized to ~1.98 USD). Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026-7.9 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a recovery story in an insurer, not yet a consistent-profitability compounder. Recent results have improved, but elevated risk and mixed progress on management priorities leave the long-term thesis in progress.
The valuation evidence points to KMPR being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear cautious. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; valuation has risen recently, but the evidence does not show that expectations have become optimistic.
Near term, profitability may remain uneven: preliminary third-quarter net income improved sharply from the second-quarter loss, while second-quarter adjusted operating income was lower than a year earlier. Specialty Auto ratios improved sequentially, but the underlying ratio remained above 100%, so consistent profitability is not yet established. Recent earnings beats are encouraging, though the record of erratic surprises and possible guidance cuts remains a risk.
Over the next few quarters, the key question is whether KMPR can sustain profitability and continue improving Specialty Auto results while carrying out its expense and restructuring work. A guidance cut or rate cuts would weigh on the setup; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
For the 1-to-3-year view, KMPR shows real signs of recovery, but the thesis still depends on turning sequential improvement into steady profits. The evidence is mixed, so execution and the next guidance update matter. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Kemper Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is stable or improving operational metrics and guidance. |
| Improving |
| significant negative news or operational setbacks under new CEO |
Q2/Q3 beats vs Q1 miss; no numerical metric reported Q1 2026 earnings miss, followed by Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings beats. New CEO appointed May 2026; Auto President departed July 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
maintain robust profit margins near current levels | The company’s profit margins and cash flow remain robust despite recent challenges. | Broken | profit margins decline significantly below recent levels | Net margin: -42.54% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: maintain profit margins near recent levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Aug 5, 2026-42.536835 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
revenue growth around 3% in next 12 months | A primary condition in Kemper Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.2% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue growth: -10.84% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.2% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 5, 2026-10.843668 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.41 → $4.08 · observed estimates
$4.88B → $4.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.41 | $4,884,726,390 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.43 | $4,884,726,387 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.41 | $4,884,726,390 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.41 | $4,884,726,390 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.41 | $4,884,726,390 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.41 | $4,884,726,390 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.41 | $4,884,726,390 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.41 | $4,884,726,390 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.43 | $4,884,726,387 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.43 | $4,884,726,387 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.41 | $4,884,726,390 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.41 | $4,884,726,390 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.41 | $4,884,726,390 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.43 | $4,884,726,387 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.43 | $4,884,726,387 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.41 | $4,884,751,390 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.43 | $4,884,726,387 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.43 | $4,884,726,387 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.43 | $4,884,726,387 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.32 | $4,801,669,660 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.43 | $4,884,726,387 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.43 | $4,884,726,387 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.43 | $4,884,726,387 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.43 | $4,884,726,387 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.43 | $4,884,726,387 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.43 | $4,884,726,387 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.22 | $4,801,644,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.22 | $4,801,644,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.22 | $4,801,644,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.22 | $4,416,069,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.22 | $4,416,069,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.22 | $4,416,069,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.22 | $4,416,069,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.22 | $4,416,069,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.15 | $4,270,119,660 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.08 | $4,172,335,728 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.08 | $4,155,627,978 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.08 | $4,155,627,978 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.