Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Kennametal (KMT)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.22-11.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.47 → 2.33 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KMT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.20 per share | A supporting condition in Kennametal's published investment case. The stated target is $0.20 dividend per share quarterly. | Intact | dividend cut or suspension next year | Dividend per share: $0.20 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: $0.20 dividend per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20260.2 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth and margin-improvement story, with a strong recent financial performance but volatile management and elevated risk. The long-term thesis is intact, though company quality has weakened and the evidence supports only medium confidence.
KMT is cheap versus peers, while the valuation evidence points to a negative expectations gap, meaning market expectations appear cautious. The priced-in assessment describes valuation as justified, with low fragility rather than a setup where expensive valuation and weak execution combine.
Near-term results have been strong: fiscal 2026 sales rose 20%, and operating income increased as margins expanded. Management has delivered on growth and margin priorities, but the sector remains a headwind and a future guidance cut is a key risk; recent history also includes a deep miss and peers have been missing. The dividend has stayed steady, though maintaining it is on watch.
The next call matters: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued execution would support the current growth and margin story. Over the near term, results and guidance from sector bellwethers SNA, SWK, and LECO could signal whether the Industrials backdrop is improving or weakening. The CEO transition and the decline in company quality are additional factors to monitor.
For the next 1 to 3 years, KMT’s case rests on sustaining sales growth and margin progress despite sector headwinds and elevated execution risk. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and the next guidance update is an important test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We delivered excellent first quarter results, with sales up 54 percent and record first quarter diluted EPS of $3.48, driven primarily by the favorable timing of raw material-related pricing compared to costs and stronger Metal Cutting volumes,” said Sanjay Chowbey, President and Chief Executive Officer.” “At the current elevated tungsten prices levels, which have increased eightfold since the 2023 Investor Day, the Company expects to be able to achieve adjusted EBITDA margin of 16 to 19 percent in a steady-state tungsten environment.”
Restore free cash flow through better working capital management | A primary condition in Kennametal's published investment case. The stated target is free cash flow >= $40 million next 4 quarters. | Broken | free cash flow stays below $20 million next year | Free cash flow: $-96.914M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: free cash flow >= $40 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 12, 2026-96,914,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve profit margin through pricing and cost savings | Profit margin rose to 13.4%. | Under Pressure | operating margin falls below 9% next year | Operating margin: 49.37% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= 13.4% operating margin next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202649.369234 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow sales above market rates with volume and share gains | A primary condition in Kennametal's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.33 billion revenue next fiscal year. | Under Pressure | revenue falls below $2.33 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $768.193M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.33 billion revenue next fiscal year. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026768,193,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We delivered excellent first quarter results, with sales up 54 percent and record first quarter diluted EPS of $3.48, driven primarily by the favorable timing of raw material-related pricing compared to costs and stronger Metal Cutting volumes,” said Sanjay Chowbey, President and Chief Executive Officer.” “Recent wins in the Aerospace & Defense, Energy and Earthworks end markets showcase the ability of our team to take share in any market condition.” Revenue was $768.193 million in 2027-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.35 → $2.33 · observed estimates
$2.73B → $3.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.35 | $2,730,654,076 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.35 | $2,730,654,076 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.35 | $2,730,654,076 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.35 | $2,730,654,076 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.35 | $2,730,654,076 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.35 | $2,730,654,076 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.35 | $2,730,654,076 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.35 | $2,730,654,076 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.35 | $2,730,654,076 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.35 | $2,730,654,076 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.35 | $2,730,654,076 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.35 | $2,730,654,076 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.35 | $2,730,654,076 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.35 | $2,730,654,076 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.34 | $2,944,566,890 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.55 | $3,065,339,110 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.34 | $2,944,566,890 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.34 | $2,944,566,890 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.34 | $2,944,566,890 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.34 | $2,944,566,890 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.34 | $2,944,566,890 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.34 | $2,944,566,890 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.34 | $2,944,566,890 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.34 | $2,944,566,890 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.34 | $2,944,566,890 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.34 | $2,944,566,890 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.46 | $3,508,134,733 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.46 | $3,508,085,399 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.46 | $3,508,085,399 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.46 | $3,508,085,399 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.46 | $3,508,085,399 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.46 | $3,508,085,399 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.46 | $3,508,085,399 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.46 | $3,508,085,399 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.46 | $3,508,085,399 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.46 | $3,508,085,399 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.46 | $3,508,085,399 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.46 | $3,508,085,399 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.46 | $3,508,085,399 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.46 | $3,508,085,399 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.46 | $3,508,085,399 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.46 | $3,508,085,399 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.47 | $3,501,664,390 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.47 | $3,501,664,390 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.47 | $3,501,664,390 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.47 | $3,501,664,390 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.47 | $3,501,664,390 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.47 | $3,501,664,390 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.47 | $3,501,664,390 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.47 | $3,501,664,390 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.47 | $3,501,664,390 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.47 | $3,501,664,390 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.47 | $3,501,664,390 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.47 | $3,501,664,390 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.47 | $3,501,664,390 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.33 | $3,479,405,813 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.33 | $3,479,405,813 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.33 | $3,479,405,813 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.33 | $3,479,405,813 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.33 | $3,479,448,980 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.33 | $3,479,448,980 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.33 | $3,479,448,980 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.33 | $3,479,448,980 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.33 | $3,479,448,980 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.33 | $3,479,448,980 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.33 | $3,479,448,980 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.33 | $3,479,448,980 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.33 | $3,479,448,980 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.33 | $3,479,448,980 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.33 | $3,479,444,718 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.33 | $3,479,444,718 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.33 | $3,479,444,718 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.33 | $3,479,444,718 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.33 | $3,479,444,718 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.33 | $3,479,444,718 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.33 | $3,479,444,718 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.33 | $3,479,444,718 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.33 | $3,479,444,718 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.33 | $3,479,444,718 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.33 | $3,479,444,718 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.33 | $3,479,444,718 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.33 | $3,479,444,718 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.