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KMT
KennametalNYSEIndustrialsTools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$34.98+1.10%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Tools & Accessories
- Market cap
- $2.64B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-02-11
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$47.63consensus
Range $36.51 – $52.89
vs price: -27% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$212.07consensus
Range $133.74 – $275.95
vs price: -84% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $35 KMT trades at 18× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $48 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.2x
peer 24.1x · own history 17.3x
Premium
0.8x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-27%
our forecast 6%
Our fair value
$47.63
range $36.51 – $52.89
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 27% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
98th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.08x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
23rd pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised +143.0% / 30d, n=8for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.95 → $2.32 (+143.0% / 30d). 7 raised, 0 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -10.7% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$166.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$325.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,624.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from "inexpensive" to "fair." Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Recent financial performance was strong.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for dividend maintenance at $0.20 per share
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders. This builds trust with investors.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The company declares a dividend of $0.20 per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend below $0.20 per share.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KMT yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SNA, RBC, and LECO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting KMT and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for KMT and other Industrials names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If KMT reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-06), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like SNA, RBC, and LECO start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping KMT and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits KMT and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0211d agoItem 1.01
Entry into Material Definitive Agreement. On May 28, 2026, Kennametal Inc. (the “Company”) and Kennametal Europe GmbH, a Swiss limited liability company and wholly-owned foreign subsidiary of the Company (“Kennametal Europe”), entered into a First Amendment to Seventh Amended and Restated Credit Agreement and Commitment Increase Amendment (the “First Amendment”) with the several banks and other financial institutions or entities from time to time parties thereto (the “Revolving Lenders”), Ban…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-5.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.