Kennametal (KMT)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.02+5.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -54.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 24.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 79.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KMT — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-28
Chairman of the Board — William M. Lambert: Mr. William M. Lambert is retiring from the Board, including his position as Chairman of the Board, with Joseph Alvarado appointed as his successor.
Why it matters: This range shows strong profits and good cost control. It shows the company can keep margins even with rising costs.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported between $2.50 and $2.80.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS is below $2.50. This shows margin pressure.
Why it matters: Amanda Cole's leadership can change Kennametal's culture and performance. A good start may help workers feel more engaged and productive.
Supportive ifLook for positive employee feedback or better engagement metrics within three months of her start.
Worry ifWatch for negative feedback or lower engagement metrics in the same time period.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this EPS target shows strong profits and good cost control. It gives investors confidence in financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported at or above $3.75.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS is below $3.50.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is crucial for Kennametal's ability to invest and pay dividends. This affects financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations this year is over $100 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations this year is under $50 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$193 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $374 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,216 loss on $10,000 · 32.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It also shows care for shareholders.
Watch forQuarterly dividend remains at $0.20 per share.
Also watch forDividend cut below $0.20 per share.
Why it matters: A drop under $70 million shows problems with working capital.
Worry ifNet cash flow from operations is under $70 million.
Less concerning ifNet cash flow from operating activities is at or above $70 million.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means Kennametal is running its operations well. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations increases by more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifCash from operations declines or grows less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The new credit agreement may give Kennametal more financial options. This can change future investments.
Watch forThe company gets better financial terms or lower interest rates from the new credit deal.
Also watch forThe company reports higher costs or restrictions from the new credit agreement.
Why it matters: Tungsten pricing impacts Kennametal's costs and profitability. It is a key input for their products.
Worry ifTungsten prices either stay the same or drop a lot from now.
Less concerning ifTungsten prices keep rising a lot. This raises costs.
Why it matters: Sales growth above 20% confirms strong demand and effective growth strategies. It shows Kennametal is gaining market share.
Supportive ifQ3 sales grew over 20% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth falls below 15% year-over-year.
Why it matters: If sales are higher, it shows strong demand and good operations.
Supportive ifQ4 sales reported above $593 million.
Worry ifQ4 sales reported below $593 million.
Why it matters: This report will show if operating income and cash flow improvements continue. Investors will look for signs of growth and stability.
Watch forThe earnings report shows operating income over $80M. It also has positive cash flow.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows operating income under $70M. It has negative cash flow.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows Kennametal is improving its cost management. This is key to long-term success.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income shows a year-over-year increase of more than 5%.
Worry ifQ2 operating income declines year over year or grows less than 2%.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows management wants to make money. A decline may raise concerns about efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income is above $80M in the next earnings report.
Worry ifOperating income is below $70M in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps manage working capital and operations. This is key for future investments.
Supportive ifNet cash flow from operations rises to $70 million.
Worry ifNet cash flow from operations goes down further.
Why it matters: Changes in margins show how well the company controls costs and prices.
Watch forOperating income margin exceeds 13.4% in the next quarter.
Also watch forOperating income margin falls below 10% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Positive free operating cash flow means better cash use. It shows good efficiency.
Supportive ifFree operating cash flow turns positive in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifFree operating cash flow stays negative.
Why it matters: Cash flow below this level shows working capital problems. It means financial stress.
Worry ifFree operating cash flow was below 20% of adjusted net income.
Less concerning ifFree operating cash flow reported at or above 20% of adjusted net income.
Why it matters: Sales in this range would confirm ongoing strong demand and growth momentum. It shows the company is on track with its growth initiatives.
Supportive ifQ1 sales reported between $745 million and $775 million.
Worry ifQ1 sales are below $745 million. This shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows better working capital management. It is key for long-term financial health.
Supportive ifFree operating cash flow is positive. This shows better cash management.
Worry ifFree operating cash flow is still negative. This shows ongoing cash management problems.