Kennametal (KMT)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.22-11.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -75.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 93.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
KMT — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-29
Other Events. On October 27, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $.20 per share. The dividend is payable on November 23, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on November 9, 2026.
Why it matters: FY26 profit gains included $316 million from the timing of prices versus raw material costs. A smaller timing benefit could pressure margins.
Worry ifA quarterly report says raw material costs rose to match prices. Adjusted operating margin falls below 20.5%.
Less concerning ifAdjusted operating margin stays at or above 20.5%. No report says raw material costs rose to match prices.
Why it matters: This checks whether earnings can stay near the strong FY26 level. Results below the range would point to weaker earnings.
Watch forOn November 4, adjusted EPS is above $2.80.
Also watch forOn November 4, adjusted EPS is below $2.50.
Why it matters: KMT has kept the dividend at $0.20 per share in recent quarters. A cut would break that record as cash flow faces pressure.
Worry ifThe next board dividend notice keeps the quarterly payment at $0.20 per share.
Less concerning ifThe next board dividend notice sets the quarterly payment below $0.20 per share.
Why it matters: FY26 free cash flow was negative $79 million as tungsten costs raised inventory needs. Meeting the FY27 goal would show cash flow is recovering.
Supportive ifFY27 free operating cash flow reaches about 20% of adjusted net income.
Worry ifFY27 free operating cash flow stays below 10% of adjusted net income or stays negative.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$131 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $392 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,893 loss on $10,000 · 38.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.