Coca-Cola Company (The) (KO)

NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04

$88.07-0.83%

Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change

Standing thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Compounder

Intact: The reason to own it still holds.

The bull case

Coca-Cola grows organic revenue about 4% to 5% yearly. Profit per share rises 8% to 9%. Free cash flow hits about $12.2 billion in 2026. The company keeps winning with strong brand and partnerships.

The bear case

Tax case risks cash flow and financial health. Brand deal issues could hurt revenue growth. Executive departures may disrupt operations.

What's priced in

The price is about 32% above our fair value near $63. Analysts expect only 1% revenue growth, below management's 4% to 5% target. Our fair value is 28% below the Street median, which is optimistic.

What has to stay true

Comparable EPS growth of 8% to 9%Intact
Marginprimary8% to 9% YoY growth · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: comparable EPS growth falls below 8% YoY in FY26
Free cash flow generation of approximately $12.2 billionIntact
Cash Flowsupporting~$12.2B · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $10 billion in FY26
Manage and resolve $20 billion tax case without material cash flow impactUnder Pressure
RegulatorysupportingNo material cash flow impact from tax case · next 12 months (qualitative)
Tax case causes cash flow reduction over 5% or significant financial distress

Source: QuarterlyIQ research model· Written 2026-07-08· Health checked 2026-09-04· Version 4· Status: Intact· Reviewed when the evidence changes

This is not a price target or investment advice.

Current Outlook

Week of Sep 5, 2026

A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.

The long-term thesis for KO remains intact, supported by strong recent financial performance.

What kind of bet this is

This investment is characterized as a durable compounder. The current thesis state is intact, with recent earnings performance indicating solid growth despite some sector headwinds.

What's priced into Coca-Cola Company (The) (KO)

The market appears to price KO with a durable premium compared to its peers, reflecting a 39% expectations gap. However, the valuation is considered unjustified given the fragility in execution quality.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued growth, as management is on track to meet its organic revenue and EPS growth targets. There is low risk of missing these targets, although recent industry trends suggest some caution.

What Coca-Cola Company (The) (KO) hinges on

The thesis hinges on maintaining guidance without cuts, as any reversal could damage credibility. Additionally, the performance of sector peers and inflation trends will be crucial for sustaining momentum.

What changed in the latest read

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

Short-term · Daily

No material changes since the prior snapshot.

Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. Additionally, the company aims to drive organic revenue growth of 4% to 5%. This growth aligns with its revenue objectives and reinforces confidence in its performance.

as of 2026-09-04

See upcoming information that could change the risk

Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.