Coca-Cola Company (The) (KO)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
$88.07-0.83%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 38.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
KO — cybersecurity incident
Dated 2026-07-16
Other Events. On July 16, 2026, The Coca-Cola Company (the “Company”) announced that fairlife, LLC (“fairlife”), a dairy company owned by the Company, identified unauthorized access by a third party to a portion of its systems, including its production-related systems, in connection with a ransomware event. After detecting the issue, the Company promptly activated its incident response and business continuity protocols. The Company’s investigation and assessment of the impact of the incident…
Why it matters: Comparable EPS growth is a clear indicator of profitability. A drop below 8% may raise concerns.
Worry ifQ3 comparable EPS growth was below 8%.
Less concerning ifQ3 comparable EPS growth reported at 8% or above.
Why it matters: This would indicate the company is not generating enough cash to support its operations and growth. Management aims for $12.2 billion in free cash flow for 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $12.2 billion for 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported at or above $12.2 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Less cash flow can reduce chances for investment and growth.
Worry ifQ2 free cash flow exceeds $3 billion, supporting ongoing investments.
Less concerning ifQ2 free cash flow is below $3 billion. This shows potential financial strain.
Why it matters: The new leader could change how Coca-Cola performs in its biggest market.
Watch forNorth America did well after the leadership change.
Also watch forNorth America did poorly after the leadership change.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$76 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $157 loss on $10,000 · 1.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $787 loss on $10,000 · 7.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Unit case volume growth reflects consumer demand. A slowdown could indicate market challenges.
Worry ifQ2 unit case volume growth reported below 3%.
Less concerning ifQ2 unit case volume growth reported at or above 4%.
Why it matters: EPS growth is crucial for investor confidence. Falling below 8% may raise concerns.
Worry ifComparable EPS growth was below 8%.
Less concerning ifComparable EPS growth reported at 8% or higher.
Why it matters: Lower cash flow may show problems in operations or higher costs. This affects spending.
Worry ifQ2 cash flow from operations reported below $2 billion.
Less concerning ifQ2 cash flow from operations meets or exceeds $2.5 billion.
Why it matters: This is a key measure of the company's ability to grow sales. Falling below 4% may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue growth was below 4%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic revenue growth reported at 4% or above.
Why it matters: The recent cyber event may disrupt production and hurt finances.
Worry ifNo big problems reported after the cyber event.
Less concerning ifProblems or losses reported due to the cyber event.
Why it matters: Coca-Cola needs to gain market share to stay competitive.
Supportive ifMarket share gains in total NARTD beverages reported in Q3.
Worry ifMarket share losses in total NARTD beverages reported in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect strategy and actions. A quick announcement may help operations.
Supportive ifA new President for North America has been announced.
Worry ifNo announcement of a new President by the next earnings call.