Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Koppers Holdings, Inc. (KOP)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$39.70-7.44%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.89 → 4.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KOP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations improves to at least $46.3M quarterly | Koppers keeps improving cash from operations, rising from $45.1M to $46.3M. | Intact | Quarterly cash from operations falls below $46.3M | Cash from operations: $50M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $46.3M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202650,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
KOP is a cash-flow improvement and business-transition story, not a steady earnings compounder today. The long-term thesis is on watch: cash flow progress is strong, but recent financial performance trails its industry cohort and confidence has eased to medium.
The valuation evidence points to KOP being cheap versus peers, while the model labels expectations as justified and fragility as low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the evidence does not show that optimistic assumptions are carrying the thesis.
Near term, results may remain uneven as management closes the Stickney facility, which has sharply reduced Carbon Materials and Chemicals adjusted EBITDA. At the same time, operating cash flow has improved substantially, supporting debt reduction and capital returns; the dividend has also been maintained and recently increased. A guidance cut remains a key risk, despite the recent earnings beats and low stated miss risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether the facility closure and cost savings progress without further weakening results, and whether cash generation remains strong. Sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strength from LIN, ECL, and SHW would support the Materials backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that tailwind.
For the 1-to-3-year view, KOP has evidence of improving cash generation and a supportive sector backdrop, but weak relative performance and uncertainty around the transition leave the thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company maintains and slightly raised its dividend to $0.09 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.09 |
Dividend per share: $0.09 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.09 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.09 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue near $1.9B to $2.0B | A primary condition in Koppers Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.9B USD. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $1.9B in FY26 | Revenue: $520.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.9B USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026520,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful discontinuation of Stickney facility by end 2026 | A supporting condition in Koppers Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Exit completed by 2026 year-end. | Intact | Exit delayed beyond 2026 or causes major financial harm | Exit date Sep 30, 2026 vs target 2026 year-end Q2 2026 earnings call confirmed Stickney distillation end date as Sep 30, 2026, aligning with the 2026 exit target. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.73 → $4.87 · observed estimates
$1.97B → $2.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.73 | $1,968,625,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.70 | $1,972,233,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.70 | $1,972,233,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.70 | $1,972,233,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.70 | $1,972,233,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.70 | $1,972,233,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.70 | $1,972,233,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.70 | $1,972,233,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.73 | $1,968,625,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.70 | $1,972,233,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.70 | $1,972,233,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.70 | $1,972,233,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.70 | $1,964,800,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.73 | $1,968,625,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.73 | $1,963,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.78 | $1,962,366,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.78 | $1,962,366,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.78 | $1,962,366,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.73 | $1,963,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.73 | $1,963,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.73 | $1,963,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.73 | $1,963,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.73 | $1,963,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.73 | $1,963,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.73 | $1,963,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.73 | $1,963,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.89 | $2,009,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.87 | $2,014,250,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.87 | $2,014,250,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.