Koppers Holdings, Inc. (KOP)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$47.78+1.96%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KOP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KOP — strategy / product update — Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities
Dated 2026-05-08
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On May 8, 2026, the Company announced that it has made a conditional decision to discontinue distillation and chemical manufacturing operations at its facility in Stickney, Illinois, subject to the satisfaction of any bargaining obligations that might exist with the union that represents certain employees at that facility. The conditional decision, which is pending negotiations and consultation with the union, was driven by challenging market…
Why it matters: Higher oil prices could hurt margins. This is critical for Koppers' cost structure.
Worry ifHigher oil prices may hurt profits by over $10 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNo significant impact from oil prices reported in Q2 2026 results.
Why it matters: Closing this facility could lower costs and help focus on main operations.
Supportive ifThere is news of successful talks that close the Stickney facility.
Worry ifNegotiations fail or are delayed. Operations continue at Stickney.
Why it matters: A drop below this level shows problems in cash flow and efficiency.
Worry ifCash from operations is reported below $150 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifCash from operations remains above $150 million for 2026.
Why it matters: This program helps the company make more money. It also improves efficiency.
Watch forManagement says the Catalyst program had big benefits in Q2 2026.
Also watch forManagement says there were problems or few benefits from the Catalyst program in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $391 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,420 loss on $10,000 · 14.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Gaining market share here could help offset losses in Carbon Materials and Chemicals.
Supportive ifHigher sales volumes in Performance Chemicals would show gains in market share.
Worry ifFalling sales volumes in Performance Chemicals would show a loss of market share.
Why it matters: Stable or higher dividends show strong cash flow. It shows management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.09 or increases in the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend per share decreases or is suspended.
Why it matters: Dividends mean the company is doing well. It shows that management wants to share profits with investors.
Supportive ifKoppers announces a dividend increase to $0.10 per share.
Worry ifKoppers suspends or cuts the dividend payment.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows strong cash flow and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company announced a dividend increase to more than $0.09 per share.
Worry ifThe company maintains the dividend at $0.09 or cuts it.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows strong cash flow and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifA dividend payment of $0.09 or more would show strong cash generation.
Worry ifA reduction or suspension of the dividend would indicate cash flow concerns.
Why it matters: Rising costs can hurt profits in Koppers' different areas.
Worry ifRaw material costs are stable or falling. This helps improve margins.
Less concerning ifRaw material costs rise a lot, causing margins to shrink further.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow supports debt reduction and shareholder returns. It reflects operational health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported between $110 million and $130 million for 2026.
Worry ifIf free cash flow drops below $110 million, it shows cash management problems.
Why it matters: Growth in this area is key for stable revenue, especially with other drops.
Supportive ifSales growth in Performance Chemicals exceeds 15% year over year for Q2 2026.
Worry ifSales growth in Performance Chemicals falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow may mean worse efficiency and financial health.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is expected to fall below $96.3 million soon.
Less concerning ifIf operating cash flow stays at or above $96.3 million, it shows strength.
Why it matters: Closing this facility could make operations better and cut costs over time.
Supportive ifIf the Stickney facility has fully stopped operations, it would help cut costs.
Worry ifDelays in closing or ongoing work at the Stickney facility show problems continue.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps pay off debt. It also supports returns to shareholders and shows financial health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow exceeds $165 million for 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow falls below $165 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Closing the Stickney facility will help cut costs. This will help future profits.
Supportive ifThe Stickney plant closure is completed by the end of 2026, confirmed by a press release.
Worry ifThe closure is delayed beyond 2026, impacting cost-saving plans.
Why it matters: Changes to EBITDA guidance show how well the company is handling costs and market issues.
Worry ifThe new EBITDA guidance is now below $240 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance stays at or above $240 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps pay off debt and return money to shareholders. This builds investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow for Q3 exceeds $50 million.
Worry ifOperating cash flow for Q3 is below $50 million.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend payments show management's trust in cash flow and profits.
Watch forDividend increases to $0.10 per share in Q3.
Also watch forDividend is cut back to $0.08 per share in Q3.