Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Katapult Holdings Inc (KPLT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.87-1.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KPLT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit increases to at least $18.2M | Gross profit increased from $7.4M to $18.2M. | Broken | Gross profit falls below $7.4M next 4 quarters | Gross profit: $11.508M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Gross profit >= $18.2M next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 202611,508,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making business with a potential turnaround angle, not yet a proven durable compounder. The Aaron’s and CCF Holdings merger is complete, but integration is underway and the thesis remains in a watch state.
KPLT is described as cheap versus peers, though the expectations gap is negative and valuation-model confidence is medium. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility: weak execution and a turbulent sector are recognized, but the evidence does not point to the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.
Near-term results show some progress: first-quarter revenue rose from the prior quarter, operating income improved, and cash from operations turned positive. Net income fell from the prior quarter, and gross originations grew only slightly year over year, so sustained profitability and growth are not yet established; recent earnings have also been erratic.
Over the next one to three years, the key test is whether management can integrate the merger while sustaining revenue and originations growth and improving profitability and cash flow. Near-term conditions could help if interest rates ease and major technology companies stabilize, while materially slower GDP growth could weigh on the business; the available evidence does not quantify these effects for KPLT.
The multi-year view is a high-risk integration and profitability story with early signs of operating progress but uneven results and medium confidence. Execution and the broader economic and sector backdrop remain central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Katapult Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Continued M&A activity with positive impact next 4 quarters. |
| Intact |
| No meaningful M&A activity or negative impact from deals next 4 quarters |
M&A completed vs continued activity target News confirms completion of Aaron's and CCFI merger on 2026-08-11, creating a $4 billion nonprime financial platform. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income and cash from operations improve sustainably | Katapult is improving profit and cash flow. | Broken | Operating income or cash from operations falls below zero next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Adjusted EBITDA 2 was $6.4 million for the first quarter of 2026 an improvement compared with Adjusted EBITDA 2 of $2.2 million in the first quarter of 2025.” “• Income from operations was $4.3 million, an improvement compared with a loss of $(0.5) million in the first quarter of 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows at least 16% year over year | A primary condition in Katapult Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth >= 16% YoY next 4 quarters. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 16% YoY next 4 quarters | Revenue: $74.761M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth >= 16% YoY next 4 quarters. Target and observation units differ. Aug 4, 202674,761,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.48 → $-1.48 · observed estimates
$0.37B → $0.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.48 | $367,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.48 | $367,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.48 | $367,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.48 | $367,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.48 | $367,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.48 | $367,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.48 | $367,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.48 | $367,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.48 | $367,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.48 | $367,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.48 | $367,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.48 | $367,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.48 | $367,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.48 | $367,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.48 | $368,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.48 | $331,800,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.