Katapult Holdings Inc (KPLT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.90+16.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KPLT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -87.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 104.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KPLT — legal / regulatory event — Changes in the Registrant’s Certifying Accountant (a) Dismissal of Independen…
Dated 2026-09-04
Changes in the Registrant’s Certifying Accountant (a) Dismissal of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm On September 2, 2026, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Committee”) of Katapult Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the dismissal of Grant Thornton LLP (“Grant Thornton”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm, effective immediately. The reports of Grant Thornton on the Company’s financial statements for each of the two fiscal years end…
Why it matters: More customer lifetime value means better customer loyalty. This leads to more profit.
Supportive ifCustomer lifetime value grows year over year by more than 15%.
Worry ifCustomer lifetime value grows year over year by less than 10%.
Why it matters: A drop could show less demand in the lease-to-own market.
Worry ifTotal lease applications decline year over year by more than 10%.
Less concerning ifTotal lease applications stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: A settlement could lower legal risks and boost investor trust.
Supportive ifThere is an official announcement about a settlement in the patent case.
Worry ifFurther legal complications arise or the case goes to trial.
Why it matters: Merging Aaron's and CCF Holdings well is important for getting merger benefits.
Supportive ifManagement says they met key goals for integration. They also made operations better.
Worry ifManagement reports serious problems or delays in integration. This could slow down progress.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$169 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $717 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,660 loss on $10,000 · 76.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growing revenue shows that people want Katapult's services and the merger is working.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 5% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 2% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Higher net income means better profits. It also shows operations are more efficient.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 exceeds $6 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 falls below $4 million.
Why it matters: Closing the merger is key for creating a larger platform for nonprime consumers. It could enhance growth and profitability.
Supportive ifThe merger closes successfully by the end of August 2026 with all approvals met.
Worry ifThe merger fails to close or is delayed beyond August 2026.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows good financial health. It supports growth plans.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations remains positive, exceeding $10M in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations turns negative again in Q2.
Why it matters: Updates on M&A could signal growth opportunities. Investors want to see progress in this area.
Supportive ifThere is news of a completed acquisition or partnership. This will help support growth.
Worry ifNo updates or further delays in M&A activity.
Why it matters: Growth in gross originations is important for revenue and profit. It shows demand for their services.
Supportive ifGross originations grow year-over-year by more than 5% in Q3.
Worry ifGross originations fall year-over-year or grow by less than 1%.
Why it matters: The outcome of the patent lawsuit could impact future operations and costs. Investors need clarity.
Watch forThe lawsuit settlement lowers legal costs. It also helps the company focus on operations.
Also watch forThe lawsuit leads to big penalties. There are also ongoing legal problems.
Why it matters: The first full quarter post-merger will show how well the integration is going. Strong results could signal effective synergy realization.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue exceeds $80 million, showing growth from the merger.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue is below $75 million. This shows there are integration challenges.
Why it matters: Reaching this level shows strong progress. It also shows good cost management after the merger.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reaches $2 million or more in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is still below $1 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for running the business and funding growth. It shows the company's financial strength.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $10 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $5 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More write-offs may show credit problems, which can hurt profits.
Worry ifWrite-offs as a percentage of revenue exceed 10%.
Less concerning ifWrite-offs remain below 8% of revenue.