Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
Kontoor Brands (KTB)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$79.18-3.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.58 → 6.53 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KTB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow at least $425 million in 2026 | The company plans to generate free cash flow of at least $425 million and has a new $750 million share buyback program. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $400 million | Free cash flow: $45.371M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$425M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 202645,371,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
KTB is a brand-focused business with a multi-year growth and portfolio-sharpening story, rather than a clear turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, though management execution is rated volatile and some plans are not yet proven.
The evidence describes KTB as cheap versus peers, with valuation tagged as justified and no fragility warnings. The expectations gap is modestly negative, so the evidence does not point to a large gap between expectations and the current setup.
Recent financial performance is strong, and the risk label has moved from elevated to moderate. Near term, earnings surprise trends are weakening and recent surprises have been erratic, although the estimated chance of a miss is low. Helly Hansen growth and the planned Lee divestiture are key execution tests over the multi-year view.
The next guidance update matters: a cut could prompt estimates to move lower and weaken the thesis. Sector signals also matter, since continued strong results and guidance from RL, LEVI, and VFC could support the consumer discretionary backdrop, while weaker results could remove that support. The Lee sale closing and delivery against Helly Hansen’s longer-term growth plan remain company-specific swing factors.
For the next 1 to 3 years, KTB’s thesis rests on sustaining strong performance while completing its portfolio changes and growing Helly Hansen. The setup is intact, but execution and sector conditions warrant attention. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins should stay near 15% operating margin and gross margin around 47.3%. |
| Improving |
| Operating margin falls below 14% |
Operating margin: 15.49% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=14.8%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 202615.493387 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches approximately $3.44 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Kontoor Brands's published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.44B. | Broken | Revenue falls below $3.1 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $584.288M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.44B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 2026584,288,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Execution of $750 million share repurchase program | The company plans to generate free cash flow of at least $425 million and has a new $750 million share buyback program. | Intact | Buyback program is materially delayed or canceled | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.48 → $6.53 · observed estimates
$2.81B → $2.82B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.48 | $2,814,577,474 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.48 | $2,814,577,474 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.47 | $2,815,077,474 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.47 | $2,815,077,474 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.47 | $2,815,077,474 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.47 | $2,815,303,939 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.58 | $2,815,549,393 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.58 | $2,815,549,393 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.58 | $2,815,549,393 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.58 | $2,815,549,393 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.58 | $2,815,549,393 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.58 | $2,814,949,393 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.58 | $2,814,949,393 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.58 | $2,814,949,393 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.58 | $2,814,949,393 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.58 | $2,814,949,393 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.58 | $2,814,949,393 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.58 | $2,815,545,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.58 | $2,815,520,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.58 | $2,815,520,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.57 | $2,814,520,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.57 | $2,814,520,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.57 | $2,814,520,568 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.57 | $2,814,196,060 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.57 | $2,814,196,060 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.57 | $2,814,196,060 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.57 | $2,814,196,060 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.57 | $2,814,862,727 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.57 | $2,814,937,558 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.57 | $2,814,937,558 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.57 | $2,814,937,558 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.57 | $2,814,937,558 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.57 | $2,814,937,558 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.57 | $2,814,937,558 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.57 | $2,814,937,558 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.59 | $2,816,263,181 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.59 | $2,816,263,181 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.59 | $2,816,263,181 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.59 | $2,816,263,181 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.59 | $2,816,263,181 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.53 | $2,816,263,181 | 5 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.