Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.39-7.15%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.11 → 1.14 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KTOS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash flow from operations improves above -$27.4M in Q1 2026 | Management aims to improve cash flow and operating income. | Improving | Cash flow from operations falls below -$27.4M in any quarter | Cash from operations: $-9.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > -$27.4M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 2026-9,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth investment with significant spending to expand facilities and support new programs. The multi-year view is watchful: revenue growth is strong, but earnings quality is fragile and recent performance is below its industry cohort.
KTOS is valued at a large premium to peers, and the evidence points to expectations running ahead of the model’s view. The valuation is marked as expensive, though the priced-in assessment says the fragility is limited rather than a full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, revenue growth has accelerated, and management raised its 2026 revenue guidance while continuing investment in capacity and programs. Margin progress is less settled: adjusted EBITDA was nearly flat between the first two quarters, and management’s margin improvement goals remain a watch item. Earnings surprises have been trending down despite recent earnings beats, so guidance and execution remain important near-term risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on sustained revenue growth translating into higher margins as new capacity and programs ramp. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, KTOS combines strong growth and ongoing investment with fragile earnings quality, elevated risk, and an expensive valuation. The thesis hinges on continued execution, margin improvement, and a supportive sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Kratos grows revenue about 33% yearly, driven by new drone contracts. |
| Intact |
| No new contracts or buildouts announced for two consecutive quarters |
Qualitative: 4 contract/buildout events in last 3 months vs 0 required New JASSM EMD contract and GEK800 ignition milestones reported Aug-Oct 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves beyond $4.7M in Q1 2026 | Management aims to improve cash flow and operating income. | Broken | Operating income falls below $4.7M in any quarter | Operating income: $-1.6M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > $4.7M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 2026-1,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $1.73B in FY26 | A primary condition in Kratos Defense & Security Solutions's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.73B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.32B in FY26 | Revenue: $458.8M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.73B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026458,800,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.07 → $1.14 · observed estimates
$2.16B → $2.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.07 | $2,159,276,706 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.07 | $2,159,276,706 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.07 | $2,159,276,706 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.07 | $2,159,276,706 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.07 | $2,159,276,706 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.07 | $2,159,276,706 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.07 | $2,159,276,706 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.07 | $2,159,276,706 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.07 | $2,159,276,706 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.07 | $2,159,276,706 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.07 | $2,159,276,706 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.10 | $2,166,412,871 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.10 | $2,166,412,871 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.10 | $2,166,412,871 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.10 | $2,204,082,965 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.10 | $2,204,082,965 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.10 | $2,204,082,965 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.10 | $2,204,082,965 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.10 | $2,204,082,965 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.10 | $2,204,082,965 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.10 | $2,204,082,965 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.10 | $2,204,082,965 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.10 | $2,204,082,965 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.10 | $2,204,082,965 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.10 | $2,204,082,965 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.10 | $2,204,082,965 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.12 | $2,204,710,157 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.12 | $2,204,710,157 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.12 | $2,204,710,157 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.12 | $2,204,710,157 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.12 | $2,204,710,157 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.13 | $2,203,423,332 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.11 | $2,203,804,926 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.11 | $2,203,804,926 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.11 | $2,203,804,926 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.11 | $2,203,804,926 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.11 | $2,203,804,926 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.11 | $2,203,804,926 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.11 | $2,203,804,926 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.11 | $2,203,804,926 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.11 | $2,203,804,926 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.11 | $2,203,804,926 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.11 | $2,203,804,926 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.11 | $2,203,804,926 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.11 | $2,203,804,926 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.11 | $2,203,804,926 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.11 | $2,203,804,926 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.11 | $2,204,891,883 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.11 | $2,204,891,883 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.11 | $2,204,891,883 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.11 | $2,204,891,883 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.11 | $2,204,891,883 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.11 | $2,204,891,883 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.11 | $2,206,624,721 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.11 | $2,209,352,317 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.12 | $2,212,656,665 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.12 | $2,212,656,665 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.13 | $2,212,656,665 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.13 | $2,212,656,665 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.13 | $2,212,656,665 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.13 | $2,212,656,665 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.13 | $2,212,656,665 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.13 | $2,212,656,665 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.13 | $2,212,656,665 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.12 | $2,212,768,929 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.12 | $2,212,768,929 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.12 | $2,212,768,929 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.14 | $2,212,768,929 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.14 | $2,212,768,929 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.14 | $2,213,818,172 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.14 | $2,213,818,172 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.14 | $2,216,778,172 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.14 | $2,216,778,172 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.14 | $2,216,778,172 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.14 | $2,216,778,172 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.14 | $2,216,778,172 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.14 | $2,216,778,172 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.14 | $2,216,778,172 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.14 | $2,216,778,172 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.14 | $2,216,778,172 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.14 | $2,216,778,172 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.14 | $2,216,778,172 | 16 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.