Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.39-7.15%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KTOS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 38.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 52.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KTOS — litigation filed
Dated 2026-03-06
of the Current Report on Form 8-K that the Company filed with the SEC on November 7, 2025, which description is incorporated herein by reference. A copy of the Merger Agreement is filed as Exhibit 2.1 hereto and incorporated by reference herein. The Merger was completed on March 2, 2026, at which time Orbit became an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the Company and a direct subsidiary of Buyer. Prior to completion of the Merger, Orbit’s ordinary shares were publicly traded on the Tel Aviv…
Why it matters: Kratos plans to start making about 40 Valkyries each year by early 2028. Reaching that pace would show the production ramp is working.
Supportive ifBy early 2028, Kratos reports production of about 40 Valkyries per year.
Worry ifKratos delays the start past early 2028 or reports a yearly pace below 40 aircraft.
Why it matters: Kratos raised its 2026 revenue range to $1.75 billion–$1.81 billion. Meeting the low end would support its growth plan.
Supportive ifFY2026 revenue is at least $1.75 billion, with organic growth of at least 18%.
Worry ifFY2026 revenue falls below $1.75 billion, or organic growth falls below 18%.
Why it matters: Fast growth and factory spending used cash in both reported quarters. Positive free cash flow would show that sales and spending are better balanced.
Supportive ifKratos reports positive free cash flow for a quarter after the reported $18.9 million use in Q2 2026.
Worry ifKratos reports another quarter of negative free cash flow. It cites more working capital or investment needs.
Why it matters: Management says margins will rise as production grows. Higher margins would show that added sales are helping profits.
Supportive ifReported adjusted EBITDA margin is higher in the second half of 2026 than in the first half.
Worry ifReported adjusted EBITDA margin is lower in the second half of 2026 than in the first half.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$218 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $757 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,249 loss on $10,000 · 72.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.