Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$47.82-0.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KTOS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 32.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KTOS — litigation filed
Dated 2026-03-06
of the Current Report on Form 8-K that the Company filed with the SEC on November 7, 2025, which description is incorporated herein by reference. A copy of the Merger Agreement is filed as Exhibit 2.1 hereto and incorporated by reference herein. The Merger was completed on March 2, 2026, at which time Orbit became an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the Company and a direct subsidiary of Buyer. Prior to completion of the Merger, Orbit’s ordinary shares were publicly traded on the Tel Aviv…
Why it matters: Better margins mean the company is managing costs well. This shows good efficiency.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA margin increases by at least 100 basis points.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA margin does not improve or goes down.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows that management is working to increase sales. It may also mean the sector is recovering.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year, indicating a positive trend.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains below 6% year over year, showing continued weakness.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future revenue and demand for services.
Supportive ifTotal backlog was above $2.084 billion.
Worry ifTotal backlog was below $2.084 billion.
Why it matters: This growth range is crucial to confirm management's guidance and ongoing momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 organic revenue growth reported at 25% or higher.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue growth was below 19%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$270 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $748 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,643 loss on $10,000 · 66.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key for funding growth. It helps reduce the need for outside money.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is close to breakeven or is positive.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still negative. This shows ongoing cash management problems.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. It also shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $4 million for Q3.
Worry ifOperating income was below $1 million for Q3.
Why it matters: High cash flow use may mean problems with working capital.
Worry ifCash flow used in operations was above $11 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow used in operations was below $11 million.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows better financial health. This is important for funding growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is reported above $0 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still negative.
Why it matters: Changes in the sector's growth can impact Kratos' performance. A recovering sector may boost sales.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up above 8% compared to last year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: New contracts would show Kratos is winning business in a key growth area. This supports future revenue growth.
Supportive ifA new contract for hypersonic systems is worth over $50 million.
Worry ifNo new contracts for hypersonic systems in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if Kratos can maintain its growth momentum. Investors look for steady revenue growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $410 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue guidance falls below $400 million.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows improved cost management. This means more money is being made.
Supportive ifOperating income for FY26 falls within the range of $18 million to $23 million.
Worry ifOperating income is still below $18 million. This shows ongoing cost problems.
Why it matters: New contracts will validate Kratos' strategy and growth in unmanned systems. This is crucial for future revenue.
Supportive ifNew contracts announced to support the planned production of 40 Valkyries each year.
Worry ifNo new contracts announced in unmanned systems segment within the next quarter.
Why it matters: Details on the stock offering will clarify how Kratos plans to fund growth and acquisitions. This impacts investor confidence.
Watch forThe offering is done successfully. The money will be used for strategic purchases.
Also watch forThe offering is canceled or delayed a lot.
Why it matters: More capital spending shows strong investment in growth and production. This can help long-term revenue.
Supportive ifCapital spending is above $135 million for 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending is below $125 million for 2026.