Lithia Motors (LAD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$386.81+2.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS grows to at least $32.32 per share in 2025: FY25 EPS $6.74 vs $32.32 target.
Lithia Motors grows revenue to about $37.6 billion in 2026. EPS rises to over $32 per share in 2025 and is expected to continue growing. The stock trades cheaply with a P/E of 9.2, well below peers. The company has stable earnings and a strong market position.
Revenue growth is slow, just 1% year over year recently. Profit margins and free cash flow remain fragile. Rising costs or weaker auto demand could hurt earnings and stock price.
The market prices in about 4% revenue growth and values the stock roughly 19% below our fair value of $382. Our fair value is 25% above the Street median, reflecting our more optimistic view on growth and profitability.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $30 per share in FY25
Breaks if: Full year revenue falls below $35 billion in FY26
Breaks if: P/E rises above 15 without commensurate earnings growth
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent financial performance and a commitment to returning value to shareholders through dividends.
The market appears to price LAD as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. There is a low level of fragility in execution quality, suggesting that the stock is not overly penalized despite some recent mixed signals.
Management is on track with priorities to increase revenue and maintain earnings per share (EPS) growth. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings estimates, as recent trends show a decline in earnings surprises.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including guidance updates from management and inflation trends. Additionally, performance from sector leaders like CVNA, PAG, and KMX could influence LAD's trajectory in the Consumer Discretionary space.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports revenue growth. Record revenues also reinforce this positive outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, the outlook for LAD remains cautiously optimistic over the next 1 to 3 years, but it is sensitive to external economic factors and sector performance. Not investment advice.