Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Lithia Motors (LAD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$316.52+0.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
42.62 → 40.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LAD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS grows to at least $32.32 per share in 2025 | EPS rises to over $32 per share in 2025 and is expected to continue growing. | Broken | EPS falls below $30 per share in FY25 | Diluted EPS: $13.22 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $32.32 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202613.22 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical auto-retailing business with a multi-year view supported by network expansion and recent financial strength. The thesis is intact, though company momentum has weakened and execution quality remains fragile.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in assessment is marked justified, with low fragility. The evidence does not show that the market is pricing in the full set of execution and business risks, while confidence in the valuation model is medium.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong and the latest reported earnings event was positive, but company momentum fell and a guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk. Over the multi-year view, network expansion is progressing, while higher year-to-date SG&A as a share of gross profit points to limited progress on operating discipline; capital allocation execution is mixed.
A key swing factor is whether LAD avoids a guidance cut, which the evidence flags as a meaningful negative. The broader sector backdrop also matters: continued strong results from CVNA, PAG, and KMX could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that tailwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis rests on strong recent performance and continued network expansion, balanced against fragile earnings quality, elevated risk, and uneven cost control. The thesis is intact, but its durability depends on guidance and execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Lithia Motors's published investment case. The stated target is >= $37.63 billion. |
| Intact |
| Full year revenue falls below $35 billion in FY26 |
Revenue: $9.947B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $37.63 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20269,946,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stock trades at a P/E below 12 | The stock trades cheaply with a P/E of 9.2, well below peers. | Under Pressure | P/E rises above 15 without commensurate earnings growth | P/E (TTM): 9.16x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20269.1623 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$40.75 → $40.26 · observed estimates
$39.81B → $39.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $40.75 | $39,809,817,450 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $40.75 | $39,809,817,450 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $40.75 | $39,809,817,450 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $40.75 | $39,809,817,450 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $40.75 | $39,809,817,450 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $40.75 | $39,809,817,450 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $40.75 | $39,809,817,450 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $41.86 | $39,719,360,070 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $41.54 | $39,752,335,431 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $41.86 | $39,719,360,070 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $41.86 | $39,719,360,070 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $41.86 | $39,719,360,070 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $42.20 | $39,742,217,210 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $41.54 | $39,752,335,431 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $41.84 | $39,769,972,524 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $41.84 | $39,769,972,524 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $41.84 | $39,769,972,524 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $42.15 | $39,736,304,640 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $41.84 | $39,769,972,524 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $42.15 | $39,736,304,640 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $41.84 | $39,769,972,524 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $41.84 | $39,769,972,524 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $41.84 | $39,769,972,524 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $41.84 | $39,769,972,524 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $41.84 | $39,769,972,524 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $41.84 | $39,769,972,524 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $42.17 | $39,752,134,291 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $42.62 | $39,840,806,159 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $42.62 | $39,840,829,236 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $42.62 | $39,840,829,236 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $42.62 | $39,840,829,236 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $42.42 | $39,823,051,096 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $42.16 | $39,829,290,974 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $41.85 | $39,592,000,246 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $41.85 | $39,592,000,246 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $41.85 | $39,592,000,246 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $41.80 | $39,580,138,708 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $41.80 | $39,580,138,708 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $41.64 | $39,578,079,554 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $41.64 | $39,578,079,554 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $41.64 | $39,578,079,554 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $41.49 | $39,574,993,221 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $41.49 | $39,574,993,221 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $41.45 | $39,547,854,836 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $41.45 | $39,547,854,836 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $41.45 | $39,547,854,836 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $41.45 | $39,547,854,836 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $40.79 | $39,671,348,574 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $40.33 | $39,631,516,336 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $40.34 | $39,616,047,105 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $40.34 | $39,616,047,105 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $40.26 | $39,565,893,259 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $40.26 | $39,565,893,259 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $40.26 | $39,565,893,259 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $40.26 | $39,565,893,259 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $40.26 | $39,565,893,259 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $40.26 | $39,565,893,259 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $40.26 | $39,565,893,259 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $40.26 | $39,565,893,259 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $40.26 | $39,565,893,259 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $40.26 | $39,565,893,259 | 9 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.