Lithia Motors (LAD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$386.81+2.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LAD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers
LAD — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-29
Other Events On July 29, 2026, Lithia Motors, Inc. announced a $0.70 per share cash dividend, to be paid on August 21, 2026 to shareholders of record as of August 7, 2026. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the " Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into a…
Why it matters: Keeping EPS above $10 shows strong profits. This helps build investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 remains above $10.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 drops below $9.50.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show management wants to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks over $500 million.
Worry ifNo new announcements on share repurchases for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Aggressive share buybacks can boost shareholder value. Exceeding $200 million shows commitment to this strategy.
Supportive ifShare repurchases in Q3 exceed $200 million.
Worry ifShare repurchases in Q3 fall below $150 million.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects Lithia Motors' sales. A decline could hurt growth.
Worry ifAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending growth above 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending growth below 0% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $311 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,172 loss on $10,000 · 31.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in EPS may show problems with making money and growth.
Worry ifQ3 diluted earnings per share falls below $10.00, a decline from $11.54 in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 diluted earnings per share is above $10.00. This shows steady profits.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show good cash flow. It also shows a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase in Q3.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Sustaining revenue growth is key for Lithia Motors. A growth rate above 2% would show continued progress.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Used vehicle profits are important for total earnings. Growth shows strong demand.
Supportive ifUsed vehicle gross profit growth exceeds 20% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifUsed vehicle gross profit growth falls below 10% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on dividends show how management views cash flow and spending.
Watch forThey announce a dividend increase or that they will keep the current dividend.
Also watch forA dividend cut or suspension is announced.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Lithia Motors can maintain growth in a changing market.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in aftersales revenue shows how well customers stay and the quality of service. This affects overall profits.
Supportive ifAftersales revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifAftersales revenue growth is below 2% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: EPS growth shows how much money a company makes. It shows how healthy the business is.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS for Q2 exceeds $4.50.
Worry ifDiluted EPS for Q2 is below $4.00.