Lithia Motors (LAD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$316.52+0.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LAD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LAD — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-21
Other Events On October 21, 2026, Lithia Motors, Inc. announced a $0.75 per share cash dividend, to be paid on November 20, 2026 to shareholders of record as of November 6, 2026. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the " Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference…
Why it matters: Aftersales gross profit rose in Q3, while its gross margin reached 59.5%. A further gain would support this source of earnings.
Supportive ifQ4 same-store aftersales gross profit is above Q4 2025, with gross margin at or above 59.5%.
Worry ifQ4 same-store aftersales gross profit is flat or lower year over year, or gross margin falls below 59.5%.
Why it matters: Q3 sales rose 3%, but adjusted net income fell 5%. A reversal would show the company is turning sales growth into more profit.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, adjusted net income rises from a year earlier. Revenue growth is no higher than adjusted net income growth.
Worry ifIn the next reported quarter, adjusted net income falls year over year while revenue grows.
Why it matters: Four new stores add $250 million in planned yearly sales. Later reports can show whether the network is growing as management aims.
Supportive ifA later company update says all four Memphis stores are open. They are adding sales toward the stated $250 million yearly amount.
Worry ifA later company update reports a delay or closure. It may also report expected yearly sales below $250 million for the four stores.
Why it matters: The sector signal says consumer sales are weak, and vehicle demand depends on customers. Strong retail sales would ease that concern.
Watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows total retail sales grew from a year earlier.
Also watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows total retail sales are flat or lower year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $385 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,704 loss on $10,000 · 37.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Used vehicle profit per sale rose 11% year over year in Q3. Another gain would extend that strength.
Supportive ifQ4 used retail gross profit per vehicle is above its Q4 2025 level.
Worry ifQ4 used retail gross profit per vehicle is flat or lower year over year.
Why it matters: Management cites cost discipline, but the nine-month SG&A rate was 70.0%, up from 68.0%. A lower rate would show progress.
Supportive ifThe reported year-to-date SG&A rate falls below 70.0% in the next quarterly update.
Worry ifThe reported year-to-date SG&A rate stays at or above 70.0%.