Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ladder Capital Corp. (LADR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.15-2.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.12 → 1.07 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LADR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve EPS of $0.22 in fiscal year 2026 | Ladder Capital aims to grow earnings in 2026 with an EPS target of $0.22. | Improving | EPS falls below $0.22 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.53 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.22 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 26, 20260.53 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a rate-sensitive commercial real estate finance business, with a portfolio-growth thesis rather than a clear turnaround. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: momentum has improved, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation is classified as cheap, though LADR trades at a 1.11 premium versus peers in the supplied measure. The expectations gap is 0.25, and the priced-in assessment says fragility is low and unjustified, so the evidence does not suggest that weak execution is fully reflected in expectations.
Near-term results show progress: interest income rose from $74.221 million in Q1 to $80.446 million in Q3, and management reported more than $700 million of new loan and securities investments in Q3. Net income also rose between Q2 and Q3 while the dividend stayed unchanged, but earnings quality is fragile and industry peers have recently missed; financing-strengthening efforts have limited evidence of delivery.
Over the near term, Fed rate cuts from the current 3.88% could support rate-sensitive real estate names, while a guidance cut or cracks among sector peers could weaken the setup. Over the multi-year view, the key question is whether portfolio growth and higher interest income can continue alongside stronger financing and liquidity evidence.
The 1-to-3-year view is mixed but improving: recent execution supports growth, while fragile earnings quality and weaker results than the industry remain important constraints. The thesis depends on sustained portfolio growth without guidance deterioration or a loss of sector support. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Ladder Capital Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is net income > $2.6M and trending upward. |
| Intact |
| net income remains flat or declines below $2.6M |
Net income: $65.886M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: net income > $2.6M and trending upward. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 26, 202665,886,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain stable or positive revenue growth | A supporting condition in Ladder Capital Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue growth >= -0.3% YoY. | Intact | revenue growth falls below -0.3% YoY | Revenue growth: 12.09% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: revenue growth >= -0.3% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 26, 202612.09174 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.18 → $1.07 · observed estimates
$0.28B → $0.28B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.18 | $275,600,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.17 | $267,533,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.17 | $267,533,330 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.17 | $267,533,330 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.17 | $267,533,330 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.16 | $264,366,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.16 | $264,366,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.14 | $264,366,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.14 | $264,366,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.14 | $264,366,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.14 | $264,366,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.14 | $264,366,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.14 | $264,366,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.14 | $264,366,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.14 | $264,366,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.14 | $264,366,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.13 | $264,366,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.13 | $264,366,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.14 | $264,366,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.13 | $264,366,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.14 | $264,366,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.14 | $264,366,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.14 | $264,366,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.14 | $264,366,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.14 | $264,366,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.14 | $264,366,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.12 | $258,200,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.12 | $251,266,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.12 | $251,266,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.12 | $251,266,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.12 | $251,266,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.11 | $249,566,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.11 | $249,566,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.11 | $249,566,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.11 | $249,566,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.11 | $249,566,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.11 | $250,800,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.11 | $250,800,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.11 | $250,800,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.11 | $250,800,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.09 | $269,466,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.09 | $269,466,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.09 | $269,466,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.09 | $269,466,667 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.09 | $269,466,667 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.09 | $269,466,667 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.09 | $269,466,667 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.09 | $269,466,667 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.07 | $276,566,667 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.07 | $276,566,667 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.07 | $276,566,667 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.07 | $276,566,667 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.07 | $276,566,667 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.07 | $276,566,667 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.07 | $276,566,667 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.07 | $276,566,667 | 5 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.