Ladder Capital Corp. (LADR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.83+0.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LADR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
LADR — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2026, Ladder Capital Corp (“Ladder”) issued a press release disclosing financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The information in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: More debt obligations could risk Ladder's capital structure. It may also hurt credit ratings.
Worry ifDebt obligations were over $4.0 billion.
Less concerning ifDebt obligations were at or below $4.0 billion.
Why it matters: The recent earnings miss shows challenges. More misses could hurt investor feelings.
Worry ifAnother earnings report shows net income below $2 million.
Less concerning ifEarnings report shows net income over $5 million. This means recovery.
Why it matters: Sector revenue growth trends can affect Ladder's performance. A rebound could mean better times.
Watch forSector revenue growth rises above 6% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows down to below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings growth is key to meeting 2026 goals. A decline would signal ongoing challenges.
Worry ifQ2 net income shows growth compared to Q1's $2.60M.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income declines from Q1's $2.60M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $203 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,464 loss on $10,000 · 14.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This report will provide updates on earnings growth and portfolio performance. It is a key indicator of management's success.
Watch forEarnings report shows significant growth in net income compared to Q2 2026.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a decline in net income compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Management aims for an EPS of $0.22 in 2026. Meeting this target is crucial for investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement confirms or raises EPS guidance during the Q2 earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers EPS guidance below $0.22 during the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: More loans mean more money for the company. This helps the management's plan.
Supportive ifLoan origination volume was over $80 million in Q3.
Worry ifLoan origination volume was below $70 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping investment grade ratings is key for getting funds and staying stable.
Watch forCredit ratings remain at Baa3 from Moody's and BBB- from Fitch.
Also watch forCredit ratings are lowered to below investment grade.
Why it matters: Exceeding this target would show strong earnings growth and management's success in meeting goals.
Supportive ifDistributable EPS for Q3 is above $0.24.
Worry ifDistributable EPS for Q3 is below $0.24.
Why it matters: Growth in the loan portfolio helps earnings and keeps the business healthy.
Supportive ifLoan portfolio grows by more than 5% quarter over quarter in Q3.
Worry ifLoan portfolio growth is flat or negative in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows good performance and strong management.
Supportive ifNet income reported for Q3 is above $14.6 million.
Worry ifNet income reported for Q3 is below $14.6 million.