Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$158.58+1.14%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.32 → 6.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LAMR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Extend stock and debt repurchase programs through Sept 2027 | The company extends its stock and debt buyback programs. | Intact | repurchase programs are not extended or are reduced | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In addition, Lamar announces that its board of directors has authorized the extension of its existing (1) stock repurchase program, which provides for the repurchase of up to an additional $250 million of its Class A common stock and (ii) debt repurchase program, which provides for the repurchase by Lamar Media Corp., its wholly owned subsidiary, of up to $250 million of Lamar Media Corp.’s outstanding senior notes and other indebtedness outstanding from time to time under Lamar Media Corp.’s credit agreement.” “Lamar previously repurchased $150 million under its stock repurchase program, and increased the overall size of the stock repurchase program to $400 million, of which $250 million remains available for future repurchases.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
LAMR is a growth-and-income real estate business with a moderately risky, execution-dependent long-term thesis. The thesis is intact, though management’s recent score decline and fragile earnings quality temper confidence.
The evidence tags valuation as stretched, with LAMR trading at a 1.48-times premium to peers. The expectations gap is modest at 0.1, so the market appears to assume continued execution without building in a large cushion for disappointment.
In the near term, recent results show moderate growth: revenue, net income, and adjusted EBITDA rose year over year, and management raised 2026 AFFO per-share guidance. The dividend also increased, while the repurchase programs offer less evidence of progress; a guidance reversal would damage credibility.
The multi-year view depends on management sustaining growth and its recently raised guidance. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while weakness among sector bellwethers could remove that support. Guidance cuts after the recent increase would be a clear negative for execution credibility.
Over the next one to three years, LAMR’s thesis rests on continued operating growth and dividend delivery, balanced against stretched valuation and execution risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Increase cash from operating activities to support stability | Profit and cash flow remain stable enough to support dividends. | Improving | cash from operations remains below $150 million | Cash from operations: $252.417M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $200 million cash from operations. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026252,417,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain quarterly dividend of $1.60 per share | Lamar Advertising keeps paying a steady $1.60 quarterly dividend. | Intact | quarterly dividend falls below $1.60 per share | Dividend per share: $1.60 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.60 per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 20261.6 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth near 5% annually | A primary condition in Lamar Advertising Company's published investment case. The stated target is >= 5% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 4% | Revenue growth: 6.46% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 5% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20266.462505 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.39 → $6.31 · observed estimates
$2.47B → $2.49B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.39 | $2,469,492,440 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.31 | $2,469,439,267 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.31 | $2,469,492,444 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.31 | $2,469,492,444 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.31 | $2,469,492,444 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.31 | $2,469,492,444 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.39 | $2,469,439,270 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.31 | $2,469,492,444 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.31 | $2,469,492,444 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.39 | $2,469,439,270 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.39 | $2,469,439,270 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.39 | $2,469,439,270 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.39 | $2,469,439,270 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.31 | $2,469,492,444 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.31 | $2,469,492,444 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.39 | $2,400,312,870 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.39 | $2,400,312,870 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.39 | $2,400,312,870 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.31 | $2,469,492,444 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.48 | $2,483,230,590 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.31 | $2,469,492,444 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.31 | $2,469,492,444 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.31 | $2,469,492,444 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.31 | $2,469,492,444 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.31 | $2,469,492,444 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.31 | $2,469,492,444 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.32 | $2,489,611,806 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.28 | $2,490,389,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.28 | $2,490,389,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.28 | $2,490,389,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.28 | $2,490,389,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.28 | $2,490,389,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.28 | $2,490,389,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.28 | $2,490,389,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.28 | $2,490,389,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.28 | $2,490,389,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.28 | $2,490,389,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.28 | $2,490,389,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.31 | $2,493,639,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.31 | $2,493,639,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.31 | $2,493,639,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.31 | $2,493,639,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.31 | $2,493,639,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.31 | $2,493,639,758 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.31 | $2,493,639,758 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.