Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$157.30-0.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LAMR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
LAMR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-06
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 1, 2026, Lamar Advertising Company’s direct wholly owned subsidiary Lamar Media Corp. (“Lamar Media”) and indirect wholly-owned special purpose subsidiaries, Lamar QRS Receivables, LLC and Lamar TRS Receivables, LLC (collectively, the “SPEs”), entered into the Eighth Amendment, dated as of October 1, 2026 (the “Amendment”), to the Receivables Financing Agreement dated December 18, 2018, by and among Lamar Media, as Initial Servicer, the S…
Why it matters: Lamar raised its 2026 AFFO forecast after Q2 results beat its expectations. Q3 results will test that stronger outlook.
Watch forOn November 5, Lamar reports Q3 AFFO per share at a pace that keeps full-year AFFO within or above $8.75–$8.90.
Also watch forLamar cuts its full-year AFFO range below $8.75, or Q3 results put the range out of reach.
Why it matters: Lamar's Q2 revenue grew 6.5% year over year. The sector data says growth is slowing, so another strong gain would stand out.
Supportive ifLamar reports revenue growth above 6.5% year over year in a coming quarter.
Worry ifLamar revenue growth falls below 6.5% year over year, with no rebound in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Operating cash flow rose to $252.4 million in Q2, from $229.5 million a year earlier. Another gain would support cash generation.
Supportive ifQ3 operating cash flow is above the Q3 2025 level, showing year-over-year growth.
Worry ifQ3 operating cash flow is at or below the Q3 2025 level.
Why it matters: Lamar raised its quarterly dividend to $1.65. It said 2026 distributions would total at least $6.50 per share, with board approval.
Supportive ifLamar declares the rest of its 2026 dividend. It reports total 2026 distributions of at least $6.50 per share.
Worry ifLamar cuts its dividend, or reports 2026 distributions under $6.50 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$72 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $196 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,283 loss on $10,000 · 12.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.