Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$150.76-0.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LAMR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LAMR — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-01
Other Events. On September 1, 2026, Lamar Advertising Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.65 per share payable on September 30, 2026 to holders of record of the Company’s Class A common stock and Class B common stock on September 21, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend may show the company's cash flow and how it uses money.
Watch forThe board declares a quarterly cash dividend higher than $1.60 per share.
Also watch forThe board declares a quarterly cash dividend lower than $1.60 per share.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow. It shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares the dividend of $1.60 per share for Q3.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $1.60 per share.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for paying dividends and buybacks. Drops could mean financial issues.
Worry ifCash from operations rises to $147.4 million in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifCash from operations falls below $147.4 million in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Stabilizing net income is key for long-term growth. It reflects the company's ability to manage costs and generate profit.
Watch forNet income for Q2 2026 shows an increase compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forNet income for Q2 2026 decreases further compared to Q1 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$76 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $207 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,005 loss on $10,000 · 10.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe board announces a quarterly dividend higher than $1.60 per share.
Worry ifThe board maintains or lowers the quarterly dividend at $1.60 per share.
Why it matters: A decline may mean issues with running the business well and growing.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is below $252.4 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations is above $252.4 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A stock buyback program shows management believes in the company's value. It can help share prices.
Supportive ifThe company announces large buybacks in the stock repurchase program.
Worry ifThe company stops or greatly cuts the stock repurchase program.
Why it matters: Activity in the repurchase program may show management's trust in the stock's value.
Supportive ifThey announced stock buybacks under the $250 million program.
Worry ifThere are no announcements about stock buybacks under the program.
Why it matters: Stable net income is important for long-term growth and investor trust. It shows the company's health.
Supportive ifNet income is higher than in Q1. This shows better operational efficiency.
Worry ifNet income keeps going down or stays the same, raising worries about making money.
Why it matters: If revenue growth exceeds 6.5%, it shows strong demand and supports management's growth outlook.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenues increase year over year by more than 6.5%.
Worry ifQ3 net revenues grow less than 6.5% year over year.
Why it matters: The dividend shows that Lamar cares about giving value to shareholders. A steady dividend helps build investor trust.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid as scheduled without any changes.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or reduced.
Why it matters: Management raised full-year AFFO guidance to $8.75-$8.90. This shows growth and stability.
Supportive ifManagement confirms AFFO per share remains within the range of $8.75 to $8.90.
Worry ifManagement lowers AFFO guidance to below $8.75. This shows possible growth problems.
Why it matters: Cash flow growth is key for funding dividends and growth initiatives. A decline would raise concerns about financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations goes up year over year, reaching over $252.4 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations goes down year over year, dropping below $252.4 million.
Why it matters: Advertising demand affects revenue. A drop could mean bigger economic problems for Lamar.
Watch forAdvertising demand is growing, which helps increase revenue.
Also watch forAdvertising demand is going down. This leads to lower revenue expectations.