Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
LCI Industries (LCII)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$104.28+2.39%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.52 → 9.21 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LCII yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Towable RV content per unit grows at least 11% YoY | A supporting condition in LCI Industries's published investment case. The stated target is Towable RV content per unit >= $5,670 in 2025-Q4. | Intact | Content per unit growth falls below 11% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical business with growth from product innovation and its Aftermarket operations, rather than a pure turnaround story. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, but its signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
LCII is described as cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is small, suggesting the valuation already reflects fairly modest expectations. The evidence rates the pricing as justified and fragility as low, though confidence in the overall assessment is medium.
Recent financial performance is strong, with Aftermarket sales growth and higher towable content per unit supporting the multi-year growth case. Cost reduction progress is less clear: management reports margin expansion, but operating income was nearly unchanged from Q1 to Q2 while consolidated revenue declined. Near term, a guidance cut is a meaningful risk, although the supplied miss-risk assessment is low.
The thesis depends on product launches and Aftermarket growth continuing to add business, while cost initiatives translate into clearer operating improvement. Near term, guidance is a key swing factor. Results and guidance from bellwethers BC, THO, and PII may also signal whether the sector backdrop remains supportive.
For the next 1 to 3 years, LCII has a credible growth case and a relatively modest valuation versus peers, but cost execution and sector conditions remain important uncertainties. The long-term thesis is intact, with a more mixed signal than before. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Capital spending stays disciplined with $55-$75 million planned for 2026. |
| Intact |
| Capex exceeds $75 million or falls below $55 million in 2026 |
Capital expenditures: $18.764M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Capex between $55 million and $75 million in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 202618,764,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Leadership transition does not disrupt strategy execution | A supporting condition in LCI Industries's published investment case. The stated target is Stable execution during CEO transition in 2026. | Intact | Leadership change causes missed targets or strategy shifts | Q2 2026 earnings beat; margin expansion confirmed CEO transition occurred in June 2026. Q2 2026 results showed an earnings beat and improved operating margins despite shrinking sales. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
OEM and Aftermarket sales grow at least 4% and 7% YoY | LCI grows sales by expanding OEM and Aftermarket markets. | Broken | OEM or Aftermarket sales growth falls below 4% or 7% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin near 7.5% to 8.0% in FY26 | A primary condition in LCI Industries's published investment case. The stated target is Operating margin between 7.5% and 8.0% in FY26. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 6.8% in FY26 | Operating margin: 9.91% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating margin between 7.5% and 8.0% in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 20269.906315 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.83 → $9.21 · observed estimates
$4.43B → $4.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.83 | $4,432,857,910 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.83 | $4,432,857,910 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.83 | $4,432,857,910 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.83 | $4,432,829,073 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.83 | $4,432,829,073 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.82 | $4,432,857,910 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.82 | $4,432,857,910 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.82 | $4,432,857,910 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.82 | $4,432,829,073 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.82 | $4,432,857,910 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.82 | $4,432,857,910 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.82 | $4,432,857,910 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.82 | $4,432,857,910 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.82 | $4,432,857,910 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.63 | $4,315,310,245 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.63 | $4,315,310,245 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.63 | $4,315,310,245 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.58 | $4,271,844,910 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.63 | $4,315,310,245 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.63 | $4,315,310,245 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.63 | $4,315,310,245 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.63 | $4,315,310,245 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.63 | $4,315,310,245 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.63 | $4,315,310,245 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.63 | $4,315,310,245 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.63 | $4,315,310,245 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.57 | $4,236,429,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.57 | $4,236,429,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.57 | $4,236,429,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.57 | $4,236,429,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.57 | $4,236,429,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.57 | $4,236,429,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.57 | $4,236,429,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.57 | $4,236,429,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.57 | $4,236,429,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.57 | $4,236,429,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.57 | $4,236,429,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.57 | $4,236,429,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.57 | $4,236,429,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.57 | $4,236,429,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.52 | $4,236,390,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.49 | $4,229,473,091 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.49 | $4,229,473,091 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.49 | $4,229,473,091 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.49 | $4,229,473,091 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.49 | $4,229,473,091 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.48 | $4,225,663,999 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.48 | $4,225,663,999 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.48 | $4,209,640,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.48 | $4,209,640,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.48 | $4,209,640,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.48 | $4,209,640,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.30 | $4,190,380,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.30 | $4,190,380,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.30 | $4,190,380,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.30 | $4,190,380,400 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.23 | $4,176,873,091 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.23 | $4,176,873,091 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.23 | $4,176,873,091 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.23 | $4,176,873,091 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.21 | $4,141,500,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.21 | $4,141,500,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.21 | $4,141,500,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.21 | $4,141,500,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.21 | $4,141,500,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.21 | $4,141,500,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.21 | $4,141,500,364 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.21 | $4,141,500,364 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.