LCI Industries (LCII)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$102.60+1.54%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LCII
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
LCII — director transition
Dated 2026-07-20
Director — Robert P. Hureau: Mr. Robert P. Hureau was elected to the Board and appointed to multiple committees.
Why it matters: Lower gains from new products show less impact from innovation and market share.
Worry ifAnnual gains from new products are less than $140 million.
Less concerning ifAnnual gains from new products are more than $160 million.
Why it matters: Strong Aftermarket sales show LCI can grow in a tough retail market. This growth shows strength and a good plan.
Supportive ifAftermarket net sales grow more than 10% year over year for two consecutive quarters.
Worry ifAftermarket net sales growth is below 5% for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Closing the merger could enhance LCI's product offerings and market position. It may create long-term value for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe merger closing date has been officially announced.
Worry ifMerger talks stall or are terminated.
Why it matters: The new CEO's vision will shape LCI's future direction. It could impact investor confidence and operational focus.
Watch forThe new CEO outlines a clear growth strategy within the next three months.
Also watch forThe new CEO fails to present a coherent strategy or timeline for growth.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $346 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,236 loss on $10,000 · 42.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher operating margins mean better efficiency and cost control. This helps LCI make more money.
Supportive ifThe operating margin will improve by more than 120 basis points in 2026.
Worry ifThe operating margin will improve by less than 70 basis points in 2026.
Why it matters: Achieving this target shows LCI's innovation success and growth potential. It reflects strong customer demand for new products.
Supportive ifNew product revenue reaches $140 million in 2027.
Worry ifNew product revenue falls below $100 million in 2027.
Why it matters: A decline in cash flow could signal financial stress and impact future investments.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported at or above $200 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations was below $200 million.
Why it matters: Higher operating income indicates effective cost controls and revenue growth. This is vital for LCI's financial health.
Supportive ifOperating income exceeds $100M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income remains below $80M in Q2.
Why it matters: More content per unit shows LCI's innovation. It helps them get more value per sale.
Supportive ifTowable RV content per unit increases to at least $5,900 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTowable RV content per unit drops or stays below $5,800 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins mean better cost control and efficiency. This is key for making money.
Supportive ifThe adjusted operating margin rises to at least 9.5% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating margin falls below 8.5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: RV OEM sales show how healthy the market is. It also shows LCI's position.
Worry ifRV OEM sales decline year-over-year worse than 4%.
Less concerning ifRV OEM sales stabilize or grow year-over-year.
Why it matters: The new CEO's vision will impact LCI's strategy and operations. This could affect investor confidence.
Watch forAnnouncement of a permanent CEO by August 2026.
Also watch forNo CEO will be named by August 2026. This shows ongoing uncertainty.
Why it matters: Consumer spending impacts LCI's sales. Weak trends can mean problems in the consumer sector.
Watch forConsumer spending increases by more than 1% in June.
Also watch forConsumer spending decreases by more than 1% in June.
Why it matters: A larger decline in RV shipments would indicate deeper issues in the RV market and affect LCI's sales.
Worry ifRV wholesale shipments decline more than 20% year over year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifRV wholesale shipments decline less than 20% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Sustaining strong revenue growth is key for LCI Industries. It shows they are on track with their growth goals.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Successful new products can boost revenue and improve LCI's market position.
Supportive ifLCI announces $140 million in revenue from new product placements during the 2027 model change.
Worry ifRevenue from new product placements falls short of $70 million during the 2027 model change.
Why it matters: Better gross profit margins are important for LCI Industries. They show good cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves to above 25% in Q2.
Worry ifGross profit margin stays below 20% in Q2.
Why it matters: The merger could create a stronger product platform and enhance LCI's market position. This could lead to better financial performance.
Supportive ifThe merger closes. LCI shares plans to integrate with Patrick Industries.
Worry ifThe merger is delayed or canceled. This leads to fewer growth chances.
Why it matters: If the new products generate this revenue, it shows strong innovation and market demand, boosting LCI's growth.
Supportive ifRevenue from new product placements reported at or above $140 million.
Worry ifRevenue from new product placements was below $140 million.
Why it matters: Growth in Aftermarket sales shows LCI can adapt in a tough market. It shows strong customer loyalty and good operations.
Supportive ifAftermarket sales grow year over year by at least 7% in Q3.
Worry ifAftermarket sales decline or grow less than 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost management and efficiency. This is important for making money in the long run.
Supportive ifOperating margin improves to at least 9.5% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating margin declines or stays below 9.0% in Q3.
Why it matters: Continued growth in content per unit shows LCI's innovation and ability to meet customer needs. This drives revenue and market share.
Supportive ifContent per unit increases by at least 5% in Q3.
Worry ifContent per unit growth falls below 3% in Q3.