Lear (LEA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$134.68+2.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LEA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LEA — earnings in line
Dated 2025-10-31
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 31, 2025, Lear Corporation issued a press release reporting financial results for the third quarter of 2025 and updating its financial outlook for the full year 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), o…
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost control. This can help make more money.
Supportive ifLear reports core operating earnings margin above 5.5% in Q3.
Worry ifCore operating earnings margin falls below 5.0% in Q3.
Why it matters: Better margins mean good cost management. This is important for making more money.
Supportive ifCore operating margins improve to above 5.5% in Q3.
Worry ifCore operating margins fall below 5.0% in Q3.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding operations and returning cash to shareholders. Strong cash flow supports growth initiatives.
Supportive ifFree cash flow of over $100 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow of less than $50 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show confidence in finances. They also show a commitment to returning cash.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement for more share buybacks beyond the current $700 million.
Worry ifNo updates or a reduction in the share repurchase program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$132 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $297 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,991 loss on $10,000 · 19.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Margin growth shows Lear can manage costs and make more money. Successful automation can lead to better results.
Supportive ifCore operating earnings margin goes up to more than 5.5% next quarter.
Worry ifCore operating earnings margin falls or stays below 5.0%.
Why it matters: An update to revenue guidance would show how Lear is managing market challenges. It reflects confidence in future sales.
Supportive ifLear raises its revenue guidance for 2026 above $24 billion.
Worry ifLear maintains or lowers its revenue guidance below $23.54 billion.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show strong cash flow. This shows a commitment to giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifLear announces share repurchases of at least $100 million in Q3.
Worry ifLear announces no share repurchases or a decrease in repurchase pace.
Why it matters: Reaffirming the outlook shows confidence in future growth. It can boost investor trust.
Supportive ifLear confirms its 2026 financial outlook in a public statement or press release.
Worry ifLear lowers its 2026 financial outlook in all updates.
Why it matters: E-Systems has a growing backlog. This means strong demand and future money for Lear.
Supportive ifLear's E-Systems backlog is now over $1.4 billion.
Worry ifE-Systems backlog is falling or not changing.
Why it matters: Changes in production trends affect Lear's sales and overall results.
Worry ifGlobal vehicle production goes up each year.
Less concerning ifGlobal vehicle production goes down each year.
Why it matters: Winning new awards in E-Systems shows Lear is competitive. It also shows growth potential.
Supportive ifLear announces at least two new major E-Systems awards in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLear reports no new major E-Systems awards in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance shows steady growth. It shows confidence in business performance.
Supportive ifManagement confirms revenue guidance for 2026 is within the stated range.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue guidance to less than $23.21 billion.
Why it matters: New awards in these segments could drive future revenue growth and validate Lear's market position.
Supportive ifLear won new business awards worth over $500 million.
Worry ifLear reports no significant new business awards in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Lear's revenue is closely tied to vehicle production. Changes here impact sales outlook.
Watch forGlobal vehicle production goes up by more than 2% from last year.
Also watch forGlobal vehicle production goes down by more than 3% from last year.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend signals strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns. A cut could indicate financial stress.
Supportive ifLear announces the dividend remains at $0.77 per share.
Worry ifLear reduces its dividend per share below $0.77.
Why it matters: Reaffirming the 2026 outlook shows Lear's ability to grow. This matters for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth meets or exceeds 5% year-over-year growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 2% year-over-year.