Lear (LEA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$114.10-3.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LEA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LEA — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-19
CFO — Jason Cardew: The CFO is resigning to retire with a named internal successor, representing an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Lear says the Orion plant is on track to open early next year. A smooth start would support new seat programs and its technology plans.
Supportive ifLear reports that the Orion plant began production in early 2027 and launched the planned GM seat programs on time.
Worry ifLear reports that the Orion launch slipped past early 2027 or that the planned seat programs faced launch delays.
Why it matters: Lear generated $158 million of free cash flow in Q3, down from $307 million a year earlier. Full-year cash flow will test its outlook.
Watch forFull-year 2026 free cash flow is at least $565 million, the low end of Lear's outlook.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 free cash flow is below $565 million, the low end of Lear's outlook.
Why it matters: Lear kept its 2026 core earnings outlook at $1.08 billion to $1.20 billion. Q4 earnings will show whether it can meet that range.
Watch forFor full-year 2026, core operating earnings are at least $1.08 billion. That is within or above the $1.08 billion to $1.20 billion outlook.
Also watch forFor full-year 2026, core operating earnings are below $1.08 billion, or Lear cuts its outlook before year-end.
Why it matters: Lear named new awards with Mahindra, BYD, and a Chinese luxury EV maker. Production starts will show whether those wins add sales.
Supportive ifLear reports that at least one named Q3 award has started production. It is adding sales in Seating or E-Systems.
Worry ifLear reports that a named Q3 award was delayed or canceled, or did not start production by its planned launch date.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $297 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,160 loss on $10,000 · 21.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.