Lennox International (LII)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$390.53+1.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LII
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 8.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers
LII — officer change
Dated 2026-05-28
Director — Sivasankaran Somasundaram: Resigned due to other professional responsibilities and time commitments.
Why it matters: Changes in leaders can change company strategy. This can affect how well the company does.
Worry ifNew leaders are announced that support growth plans.
Less concerning ifMore key leaders leave or there is no clear strategy.
Why it matters: A larger decline would signal continued weakness in the residential market. This could impact overall growth and margins.
Worry ifHome Comfort Solutions revenue declines more than 7% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifHome Comfort Solutions revenue declines less than 7% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: This segment has had problems. Improvement shows a rise in home demand, which is key for growth.
Supportive ifHome Comfort Solutions revenue growth returns to positive year over year.
Worry ifHome Comfort Solutions revenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Focusing on capital spending supports growth plans. It also helps operations. This shows strong financial management.
Watch forCapital spending is about $250 million for 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending is over $300 million for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $361 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,506 loss on $10,000 · 35.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Excessive capex could strain cash flow and impact profitability. It’s a key management focus.
Worry ifSpending is above $250 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifSpending is at or below $250 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment helps the company grow. It also helps offset problems in residential markets.
Supportive ifBuilding Climate Solutions revenue growth exceeds 24% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifBuilding Climate Solutions revenue growth falls below 24% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Meeting this growth target is key to achieving overall revenue goals for 2026. It shows strong market demand and effective execution.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of at least 8% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping this EPS guidance shows confidence in making money. It shows management can handle costs.
Supportive ifEPS guidance remains at $23.00 to $24.00 after Q3 results.
Worry ifEPS guidance is lowered below $23.00.
Why it matters: Management aims for 8% revenue growth. Tracking this will show if they can achieve their targets amid market challenges.
Supportive ifCore revenue growth exceeds 4% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCore revenue growth is below 0% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in guidance may show shifts in the market or how the company is doing.
Watch forManagement raises revenue growth guidance to above 8% for 2026.
Also watch forManagement lowers revenue growth guidance to below 8% for 2026.
Why it matters: Successful acquisitions can boost growth. They also support management's plan.
Supportive ifNew acquisitions contribute at least 5% to revenue growth.
Worry ifAcquisitions do not help revenue growth or fail.