Lennox International (LII)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$348.79-2.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LII
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 46 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LII — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
and Exhibit 99.1 of this report is being “furnished” with the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that section. Furthermore, such information shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, unless specifically identified as b…
Why it matters: Lennox cut its 2026 adjusted EPS range from $23.00–$24.00 to $21.00–$21.50. A result below $21.00 would miss even that lower range.
Worry ifThe 2026 report shows adjusted EPS below $21.00.
Less concerning ifThe 2026 report shows adjusted EPS of at least $21.00.
Why it matters: Lennox cut its cash flow range to $700 million–$750 million. A result below $700 million would miss the new low end.
Worry ifThe 2026 report shows free cash flow below $700 million.
Less concerning ifThe 2026 report shows free cash flow at or above $700 million.
Why it matters: Lennox cut its 2026 revenue growth plan from about 8% to about 6%. The next report will show whether sales are tracking that lower plan.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue growth is below 6%.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 revenue growth is at least 6%.
Why it matters: Building Climate revenue grew 24% in Q3, while its margin slipped to 26.2%. A margin above that level would support management's plan for full-year margin growth.
Supportive ifBuilding Climate segment margin tops 26.2% in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifBuilding Climate segment margin stays at or below 26.2%, and full-year margins do not expand.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $326 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,194 loss on $10,000 · 41.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Home Comfort margin fell to 18.7% in Q3, down 490 basis points year over year. A further drop would show that price and cost actions have not stopped the slide.
Worry ifHome Comfort segment margin is below 18.7% in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifHome Comfort segment margin is at least 18.7% in the next reported quarter.