Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp
Lumentum (LITE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$626.75-7.85%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
34.49 → 38.76 EPS · FY ending Jun 27, 2028 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LITE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage rising purchase obligations without margin erosion | A supporting condition in Lumentum's published investment case. The stated target is Purchase obligations growth contained to avoid margin decline. | Recovered | Purchase obligations growth causes operating margin to fall below 20% | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-growth technology business whose recent results show strong growth and improving profitability. The long-term thesis is intact, but its signal has turned mixed and its risk rating is high.
The evidence rates the shares as expensive versus peers, with an 11.47% peer premium, though the model has low confidence and points to optionality as a valuation driver. The priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations may be a little ahead of the evidence.
Recent performance has been strong: revenue grew 83% in FY26, and operating margins improved sharply as revenue grew and product mix and operational discipline helped. Management’s AI and cloud growth priority is on track, but margin expansion and earnings growth are watch items; a recent quarter miss and prior deep miss add near-term execution risk.
The multi-year view depends on continued AI and cloud demand translating into revenue growth and on management sustaining margin gains. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; steadier results from technology peers or rate cuts could ease sector pressure.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LITE has strong operating momentum, but high risk, a mixed recent signal, and expensive valuation make continued execution central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Lumentum's published investment case. The stated target is ~$2.95 EPS in Q2 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS falls below $2.15 in Q2 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $3.54 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.95 EPS in Q2 2026. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2027-Q1. Nov 3, 20263.54 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating margin near 35.5% in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Lumentum's published investment case. The stated target is ~35.5% operating margin in Q2 2026. | Under Pressure | Operating margin falls below 20% in Q2 2026 | Operating margin: 28.5% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~35.5% operating margin in Q2 2026. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2027-Q1. Nov 3, 202628.496753 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near $808 million in Q3 2026 | A primary condition in Lumentum's published investment case. The stated target is >= $808 million revenue in Q3 2026. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $650 million in Q3 2026 | Revenue: $1.263B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $808 million revenue in Q3 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20261,262,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$29.53 → $38.76 · observed estimates
$8.77B → $10.36B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $29.53 | $8,772,229,549 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $33.26 | $9,455,678,378 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $33.26 | $9,455,678,378 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $33.26 | $9,455,678,378 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $33.26 | $9,455,678,378 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $33.26 | $9,455,678,378 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $33.26 | $9,455,678,378 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $33.23 | $9,473,917,416 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $33.23 | $9,473,917,416 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $33.23 | $9,473,917,416 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $33.23 | $9,473,917,416 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $33.23 | $9,473,917,416 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $33.23 | $9,473,917,416 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $33.32 | $9,500,959,444 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $33.64 | $9,532,142,091 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $33.64 | $9,532,151,182 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 5 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $33.92 | $9,597,491,726 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $34.08 | $9,615,784,139 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $34.08 | $9,615,784,139 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $34.12 | $9,662,172,300 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $34.12 | $9,662,172,300 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $34.12 | $9,662,172,300 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $34.12 | $9,662,172,300 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $34.49 | $9,741,559,800 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $34.49 | $9,778,149,691 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $34.49 | $9,778,147,935 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $34.49 | $9,778,147,935 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $34.40 | $9,795,198,652 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $34.40 | $9,795,198,652 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $34.40 | $9,795,198,652 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $34.40 | $9,795,198,652 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $34.63 | $9,837,600,074 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $34.63 | $9,837,600,074 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $34.73 | $9,872,078,335 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $34.73 | $9,872,078,335 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $34.73 | $9,872,078,335 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $34.73 | $9,872,078,335 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $34.73 | $9,872,078,335 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $34.73 | $9,872,096,952 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $34.73 | $9,872,096,952 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $34.73 | $9,872,096,952 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $35.12 | $9,970,397,196 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $35.12 | $9,970,397,196 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $35.12 | $9,970,397,196 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $35.12 | $9,970,398,676 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $35.12 | $9,970,398,676 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $35.23 | $9,996,780,154 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $35.23 | $9,996,780,154 | 13 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $35.23 | $9,996,784,038 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $35.23 | $9,998,721,646 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $35.23 | $9,998,720,092 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $35.23 | $9,998,720,092 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $37.58 | $10,227,121,209 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $38.76 | $10,364,942,001 | 13 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
2 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.