Lumentum (LITE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$626.75-7.85%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LITE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 84.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 66.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LITE — divestiture
Dated 2026-11-02
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. The Merger On November 1, 2026, Lumentum Holdings Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Lumentum ” or the “ Company ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Marvell Technology, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Marvell ”), Java Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Marvell (“ Merger Sub I ”) and Java Merger Sub II, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Marvel…
Why it matters: Lumentum guided to $1.225 billion to $1.275 billion. Revenue above the midpoint would extend its rapid growth.
Supportive ifOn November 5, Q1 FY27 revenue is reported above $1.25 billion.
Worry ifOn November 5, Q1 FY27 revenue is reported below $1.225 billion.
Why it matters: NVIDIA committed $2 billion and linked its investment to a new U.S. fab. A clear start to production would show added capacity is coming online.
Supportive ifLumentum reports that the new U.S. fab has started production or shipped products.
Worry ifLumentum says the fab opening or production start was delayed, or it cut capacity plans.
Why it matters: Management says CPO is a key growth driver. Named sales would show that this product is adding to business results.
Supportive ifA quarterly report names CPO sales or revenue and shows a rise from the prior quarter.
Worry ifManagement says CPO orders or shipments were delayed. A quarterly report shows no CPO sales after earlier plans to scale it.
Why it matters: OCS is a named growth driver, and its backlog topped $400 million in Q1 FY26. Reported sales would show that demand is reaching revenue.
Supportive ifA quarterly report names OCS revenue and shows it rising from the prior quarter.
Worry ifA quarterly report says OCS backlog fell below $400 million or orders were delayed or canceled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$452 on $10,000 · ±4.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $963 loss on $10,000 · 9.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,470 loss on $10,000 · 44.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.