Lumentum (LITE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$881.26+4.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LITE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 47.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 41.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LITE — President transition
Dated 2026-07-30
Executive Vice President, Global Reliability & Quality — Vincent Retort: Mr. Retort is retiring but will provide consulting services and continue equity vesting.
Why it matters: A growing backlog indicates strong demand for these products, which are key growth drivers. It shows Lumentum's position in the market is strengthening.
Supportive ifOCS and CPO backlog reported above $400 million.
Worry ifOCS and CPO backlog reported below $400 million.
Why it matters: Progress in this partnership could improve Lumentum's technology and its place in AI.
Watch forNew products or technologies came from the NVIDIA partnership.
Also watch forNo news or delays in the partnership's R&D work.
Why it matters: More sales may show capital needs and affect shareholder value.
Worry ifThere is news of more unregistered stock sales.
Less concerning ifNo new news of unregistered sales next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings per share over $2.85 show strong financial results.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP diluted EPS reported above $2.85 for Q4.
Worry ifNon-GAAP diluted EPS reported below $2.85 for Q4.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$452 on $10,000 · ±4.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $897 loss on $10,000 · 9.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,280 loss on $10,000 · 42.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand. This could lead to more money from OCS.
Supportive ifBacklog for OCS reported above $400 million.
Worry ifBacklog for OCS reported below $400 million.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows good cost control and better product mix. It matches management's goals for higher margins.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP operating margin is 39.5% or more.
Worry ifThe non-GAAP operating margin is less than 39.5%.
Why it matters: NVIDIA's $2 billion investment may boost Lumentum's manufacturing and R&D. This is important for future growth.
Supportive ifNVIDIA announces new plans for manufacturing or R&D from its investment.
Worry ifNo new plans or delays in growth linked to NVIDIA's investment.
Why it matters: Earnings recovery is key after a recent miss. It could help restore trust.
Watch forQ3 2026 earnings show a return to profitability with EPS above $0.40.
Also watch forQ3 2026 earnings report shows continued losses or lower EPS than $0.30.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost control and efficiency. This helps overall profits.
Supportive ifOperating margin is above 21.6% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifOperating margin is below 20% in the same earnings report.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows strong demand from AI and cloud markets. It confirms management's growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ1 FY27 revenue reported at or above $1.25 billion.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 revenue reported below $1.25 billion.
Why it matters: The acquisition is expected to double Lumentum's cloud data center revenue. This will show the effectiveness of the deal.
Supportive ifCloud Light adds over $200 million in revenue within 12 months after the acquisition.
Worry ifCloud Light contributes less than $100 million in revenue within the same timeframe.
Why it matters: Good integration may boost Lumentum's products and sales in cloud data centers.
Supportive ifManagement says the Cloud Light integration is working well and sales are rising.
Worry ifIntegration problems happen, causing delays in revenue from Cloud Light.
Why it matters: Growth in these areas is crucial for Lumentum's long-term strategy. It shows the effectiveness of their investments.
Supportive ifRevenue from OCS and CPO reported to exceed $400 million.
Worry ifRevenue from OCS and CPO remains below current levels or stagnant.