Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Lakeland Financial (LKFN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$62.90+2.68%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.51 → 4.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LKFN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sustain dividend at $0.52 per share quarterly and active buybacks | The bank returns cash by raising dividends to $0.52 quarterly and doubling buybacks to $60 million. | Intact | Dividend cut or buyback program reduced materially | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional bank investment with a growth-and-income profile, not a turnaround case. The long-term thesis is intact, though management and recent performance assessments are neutral and overall confidence is medium.
LKFN trades at a 1.71 premium to peers, reflecting a durable premium in the valuation evidence. The expectations gap is 0.27, and the priced-in assessment labels the setup unjustified, but fragility is low because the evidence does not show a combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Near term, the latest reported quarter showed loans and revenue above their year-ago levels, while core deposits grew and made up 96% of deposits. Management has delivered on recurring loan-growth and deposit priorities, but commercial deposits contracted year over year, capital returns were mixed, and the smaller-cap profile plus a deep past miss remain risks.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on continued organic loan growth, market-share gains, and stronger relationship funding. Near term, rate cuts from the current 3.88% could weigh on the sector, while continued earnings strength from HDB, IBN, and USB could support sector momentum; misses or lower guidance from those banks could weaken that tailwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, LKFN’s long-term thesis is intact, with measurable loan and deposit growth balanced by moderate risk, neutral fundamental assessments, and a valuation premium to peers. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It keeps stable core deposits to fund loans. |
| Intact |
| Core deposit growth weakens or composition shifts unfavorably |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain EPS at or above $4.30 annually | Profit per share beats estimates with $1.04 in Q1 2026. | Improving | EPS falls below $4.00 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain positive revenue growth near 9% annually | A primary condition in Lakeland Financial's published investment case. The stated target is >=9% YoY revenue growth. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% next year | Revenue growth: 2.6% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=9% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 20262.599935 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.49 → $4.62 · observed estimates
$0.30B → $0.31B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.49 | $304,854,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.49 | $304,854,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.49 | $304,854,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.49 | $304,854,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.49 | $304,892,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.50 | $305,092,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.50 | $305,092,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.50 | $305,092,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.50 | $305,092,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.50 | $305,092,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.50 | $305,092,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.50 | $305,092,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.50 | $305,092,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.50 | $305,092,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.50 | $305,092,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.50 | $305,092,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.50 | $305,092,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.50 | $305,092,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.50 | $305,092,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.50 | $305,092,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.50 | $305,092,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.50 | $305,092,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.50 | $305,092,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.50 | $305,092,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.50 | $305,092,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.50 | $305,092,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.51 | $305,319,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.51 | $305,219,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.62 | $307,970,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.62 | $307,970,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.62 | $307,970,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.62 | $307,970,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.62 | $307,970,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.62 | $307,970,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.62 | $307,970,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.62 | $307,970,250 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.