Lakeland Financial (LKFN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$60.57+0.90%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LKFN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -14.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
LKFN — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-14
Regulation FD Disclosure On July 14, 2026, Lakeland Financial Corporation's Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.52 per share on its common stock. The dividend will be paid on August 5, 2026 to the shareholders of record on July 25, 2026.
Why it matters: Stable or better margins show good cost management. They also show smart loan pricing.
Supportive ifNet interest margin stays above 3.49% in Q3.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.49% in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in this ratio can show weaker capital strength. It may also mean regulatory issues.
Worry ifCommon equity tier 1 capital ratio falls below 14% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCommon equity tier 1 capital ratio remains at or above 14% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Loan growth is key to revenue. A drop would signal weaker demand or execution.
Worry ifQ3 total loans grow less than 6% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 total loans grow at or above 6% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase shows strong financial health and a focus on giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe board announces a dividend greater than $0.52 per share.
Worry ifThe board maintains or decreases the dividend from $0.52 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $264 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,769 loss on $10,000 · 17.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it may hurt Lakeland Financial's performance. This could signal a broader issue.
Worry if3-year revenue growth in the financial sector drops below 10%.
Less concerning if3-year revenue growth remains above 12%.
Why it matters: An increase shows good management of money. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifBoard announces a dividend increase above $0.52 per share.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on the repurchase program show confidence in capital strength and stock value.
Supportive ifMore share buybacks or a bigger approval will be announced.
Worry ifNo updates or changes to the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Fewer loans on the watch list means better asset quality. It also shows better risk management.
Supportive ifWatch list loans as a percentage of total loans drops below 3.33%.
Worry ifWatch list loans increase back above 4.00%.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Lakeland's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth for Lakeland Financial drops below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Slower deposit growth may show customers are less confident. This can impact funding.
Worry ifTotal deposits grow less than 3% year over year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits grow 3% or more year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in noninterest income helps total revenue. A slowdown might show weakness.
Worry ifNoninterest income grows less than 10% year over year in Q2.
Less concerning ifNoninterest income grows 10% or more year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: A lower return on equity can show less profit. It may also mean less efficiency.
Worry ifReturn on average equity drops below 13% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifReturn on average equity stays at or above 13% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Core deposits fund loans. A drop indicates reliance on more expensive funding.
Worry ifCore deposits fall below 93% of total deposits in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCore deposits remain at or above 93% of total deposits in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows the company is doing well and managed effectively.
Supportive ifQ2 net income growth exceeds 30% compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 net income growth is below 20% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Buying back shares shows good use of capital and confidence in the company's worth.
Supportive ifThe company buys back more shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q3 2026.