Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
LKQ Corporation (LKQ)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$20.54-1.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.09 → 2.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LKQ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Meet or exceed 2026 EPS guidance of $2.21 | The company raised 2026 EPS guidance to $2.21 per share. | Broken | EPS guidance falls below $2.16 for FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
LKQ is a value-oriented auto-parts business with an execution-sensitive, rather than clearly durable, multi-year view. The thesis is weakened: company quality declined, recent financial performance moved to the bottom half of its industry, and risk remains elevated.
The valuation evidence describes LKQ as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and the pricing tag is justified. That suggests weak execution is recognized to some degree, but the evidence does not show that the full range of business risks is reflected in expectations.
Near term, the recent earnings beat and higher momentum offer some support, but the latest quarter showed European revenue and operating income well below the prior year. Cost discipline remains unproven in the latest results, and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; the earnings-miss risk is described as low, though recent surprises have been erratic.
The multi-year view hinges on whether management can restore European performance, including addressing the cited Germany ERP issues, and improve operating efficiency. In the near term, guidance and results from sector bellwethers GPC, BWA, and APTV could either sustain or weaken the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, cheapness versus peers is balanced by fragile earnings quality, elevated risk, and limited recent evidence of an operational recovery. The long-term thesis depends on execution improving, especially in Europe. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross profit rose $132M to $1.33B. |
| Broken |
| Gross profit falls below $1.2B in any quarter of FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improvement toward prior levels | A primary condition in LKQ Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $250M in FY26. | Broken | Operating income remains below $217M in FY26 | Operating income: $53M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $250M in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202653,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 2% annually | A primary condition in LKQ Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=2% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -5.14% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026-5.144327 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.32 → $2.33 · observed estimates
$14.23B → $13.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.32 | $14,230,487,680 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.32 | $14,230,487,680 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.32 | $14,230,491,363 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.32 | $14,230,487,680 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.32 | $14,230,491,363 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.32 | $14,230,487,680 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.32 | $14,230,487,680 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.30 | $14,187,322,680 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.23 | $14,119,977,024 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.11 | $13,996,799,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.11 | $13,998,058,050 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.11 | $13,998,058,050 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.09 | $13,935,470,550 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.09 | $13,935,470,550 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.11 | $13,996,799,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.11 | $13,996,799,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.09 | $13,935,470,550 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.11 | $13,996,799,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.09 | $13,935,470,550 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.11 | $13,996,799,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.11 | $13,996,799,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.11 | $13,996,799,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.11 | $13,996,799,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.11 | $13,996,799,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.11 | $13,996,799,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.11 | $13,996,799,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.09 | $13,935,436,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.07 | $13,909,311,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.07 | $13,909,311,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.07 | $13,909,311,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.07 | $13,909,311,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.07 | $13,909,311,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.07 | $13,909,311,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.07 | $13,909,311,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.07 | $13,909,311,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.07 | $13,909,311,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.07 | $13,909,311,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.07 | $13,909,311,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.07 | $13,909,311,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.07 | $13,909,311,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.07 | $13,909,311,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.06 | $13,905,786,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.06 | $13,905,786,750 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.85 | $13,804,102,125 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.74 | $13,804,096,510 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.74 | $13,804,096,510 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.60 | $13,666,274,260 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.60 | $13,666,274,260 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.44 | $13,492,234,662 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.38 | $13,442,984,625 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.38 | $13,442,984,625 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.38 | $13,442,984,625 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.34 | $13,442,984,625 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.33 | $13,436,797,125 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.33 | $13,436,797,125 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.