LKQ Corporation (LKQ)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$20.54-1.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LKQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LKQ — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-23
CEO — Justin L. Jude: The CEO resigned but was immediately succeeded by a named external hire with an interim leadership plan, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: The Board paused the Specialty sale process while new leaders assess the business. A clear next step will show how the review has changed.
Watch forLKQ sets a new strategy, restarts the Specialty sale process, or announces a deal.
Also watch forThe next quarterly update gives no new path or timing for the strategic review.
Why it matters: Sal Abbate is set to become CEO on December 15. His first operating steps will show how the new team plans to address weak results.
Watch forLKQ confirms Abbate took office on December 15. It names steps to improve service, operations, or costs in Europe.
Also watch forLKQ delays Abbate's start or names another CEO before he takes office.
Why it matters: Parts and services revenue fell 5.6% in Q3. A smaller decline would signal that demand is improving, despite a shrinking consumer sector.
Supportive ifQuarterly parts and services revenue decline is less than 5.6%, then reaches zero growth or better.
Worry ifQuarterly parts and services revenue falls 5.6% or more again.
Why it matters: LKQ declared a $0.30 quarterly dividend. The payment and any change to the next dividend will show whether cash returns continue.
Watch forLKQ pays $0.30 per share on December 3. It declares another quarterly dividend of at least $0.30.
Also watch forLKQ cuts, delays, or cancels the December 3 payment, or declares a lower dividend next time.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$149 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $310 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,037 loss on $10,000 · 50.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Europe parts and services revenue fell 9.8%, and its EBITDA margin was 4.1% to 5.1%. Better results would show the fixes are working.
Supportive ifIn a later quarter, Europe's organic revenue decline drops below 9.8%. Its EBITDA margin climbs above 5.1%.
Worry ifEurope organic revenue falls 9.8% or more again, or its EBITDA margin stays at or below 5.1%.