LKQ Corporation (LKQ)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.54+1.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LKQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
LKQ — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026, LKQ Corporation (the "Company") issued a press release regarding its second quarter 2026 financial results and 2026 financial outlook. A copy of the Company's press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report and is incorporated herein by reference. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in a…
Why it matters: A stable margin shows good pricing and cost control. This is key for profit.
Supportive ifGross profit margin is staying steady above 38%.
Worry ifGross profit margin is falling below 36%.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is vital for capital returns to shareholders. A strong performance supports ongoing buybacks and dividends.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $200 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains below $100 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable organic revenue growth would show that market conditions are getting better.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth for parts and services turns positive, exceeding 0% in Q3.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth remains negative, worse than -1.0% in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in North America shows recovery and better operations. This is key for LKQ's performance.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth in North America exceeds 1.5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth in North America falls below -0.5% in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $286 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,484 loss on $10,000 · 34.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Improvement in Europe could raise revenue and profits for LKQ.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue growth in Europe has lasted for two quarters.
Worry ifRevenue from European operations keeps going down.
Why it matters: A rise in operating income means cost management is working well.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 2026 goes up compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating income for Q2 2026 goes down compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: If this growth rate goes up, it shows strong demand and good management.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue growth surpasses 1.5% compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is below 0.5% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Updates on the strategic review may show changes. These changes could help increase shareholder value.
Watch forA clear announcement of a deal or outcome from the review is important.
Also watch forNo updates or a statement that the review won't lead to a deal is a concern.
Why it matters: An increase in gross profit margin shows better cost management and pricing power. This can boost investor sentiment.
Supportive ifGross profit margin increases by more than 1% compared to Q1.
Worry ifGross profit margin decreases or stays flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: How well the ERP works could impact European operations and profits.
Watch forGood operational results in Europe after the ERP was put in place.
Also watch forOngoing problems or delays with the ERP implementation.
Why it matters: Improvements in Europe could help with challenges and boost overall growth.
Watch forEuropean revenue growth exceeds -2% in Q3.
Also watch forEuropean revenue growth declines further, worse than -5% in Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings results that meet or exceed guidance show management's skill in handling challenges. This can lead to better performance.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 diluted EPS reported at or above $0.54 (midpoint of guidance).
Worry ifQ2 2026 diluted EPS reported below $0.54.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows better health. It also shows financial stability.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations for Q3 exceeds $150 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations for Q3 falls below $100 million.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth shows more profit and better efficiency.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS for Q3 exceeds $0.70.
Worry ifDiluted EPS for Q3 falls below $0.60.