Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$41.48-9.63%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LMND yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA loss improves by more than 50% versus 2025 | A primary condition in Lemonade, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Adjusted EBITDA loss improves >50% vs 2025. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA loss does not improve by 25% vs 2025 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not yet a proven profitable compounder. Its thesis is in a watch state: the signal has improved from cautious to mixed, while recent performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
LMND is valued at a sizable premium to peers, with the valuation model pointing to growth optionality, meaning investors are placing weight on future potential. The expectations gap is slightly negative, but model confidence is low, so the valuation read is uncertain. Priced-in fragility is low, though that does not remove the risk of weak execution.
Near term, growth and loss trends have improved: revenue and In Force Premium rose in Q2, and the Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed from Q1. Management still expects positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2026, but the goal is not yet achieved; the company also recently missed a quarter and has a history of a deep miss. Growth spending is rising while reported customer-acquisition efficiency remains stable, and the CFO transition adds a management change to monitor.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued premium and revenue growth alongside better loss performance, especially whether LMND reaches positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2026. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could support the near-term backdrop. Interest-rate changes are another sector factor, though the evidence does not establish their effect on LMND’s own operations.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LMND offers a high-risk growth thesis with evidence of operating progress, but profitability and execution remain unproven. The key test is whether growth continues while losses narrow toward management’s stated milestone. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company improved cash flow to positive $20.7 million in 2025-Q4. |
| Broken |
| Operating cash flow remains negative over next 4 quarters |
Cash from operations: $-3.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Positive cash flow from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 2026-3,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $1.2 billion in fiscal year 2026 | Lemonade raised revenue guidance to about $1.2 billion for 2026. | Broken | Revenue falls below $1.0 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $294.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.2B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026294,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.82 → $-1.07 · observed estimates
$1.62B → $1.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.82 | $1,619,265,370 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.82 | $1,619,265,370 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.82 | $1,621,445,370 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.82 | $1,623,404,226 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.82 | $1,623,378,781 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.82 | $1,621,445,370 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.82 | $1,621,445,370 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.93 | $1,631,832,150 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.89 | $1,631,832,154 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.04 | $1,638,059,430 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.04 | $1,638,059,430 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.04 | $1,638,059,430 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.04 | $1,638,059,430 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.01 | $1,638,041,245 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.01 | $1,639,754,520 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.01 | $1,639,754,520 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.01 | $1,639,754,520 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.01 | $1,639,754,520 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.01 | $1,639,754,520 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.07 | $1,639,770,970 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.01 | $1,639,754,520 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.01 | $1,639,754,520 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.01 | $1,639,754,520 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.01 | $1,639,754,520 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.01 | $1,639,754,520 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.01 | $1,639,754,520 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.07 | $1,641,927,247 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.07 | $1,641,685,686 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.07 | $1,641,731,141 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.07 | $1,642,367,505 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.07 | $1,642,367,505 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.07 | $1,642,367,505 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.07 | $1,642,367,505 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.07 | $1,642,367,505 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.07 | $1,642,367,505 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.06 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.06 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.06 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.06 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.07 | $1,642,622,050 | 10 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.