Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.90+11.03%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LMND
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 45.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 57.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
LMND — CFO transition
Dated 2026-10-15
CFO — Mr. Bixby: The filing details the planned transition of the CFO role from Mr. Bixby to Mr. Stead, with Bixby moving to a board seat, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of executive talent.
Why it matters: More premium in force supports revenue growth. Q2 IFP rose 32% year over year.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 IFP reaches the guided range of $1.632 billion to $1.639 billion.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 IFP falls below $1.632 billion.
Why it matters: Management says IFP growth should outpace growth spend in 2027 and later. That could help narrow losses.
Supportive ifIn 2027, IFP growth is higher than growth spend growth, as management described.
Worry ifIn 2027, growth spend growth is equal to or higher than IFP growth.
Why it matters: Management has kept this goal for two quarters. A positive result would mark a key step toward profit.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is above $0. This meets management's stated goal.
Worry ifQ4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is $0 or lower. This misses management's stated goal.
Why it matters: The filing describes a planned move from Mr. Bixby to Mr. Stead. A smooth handoff would keep finance leadership steady.
Watch forA company filing or release confirms Mr. Stead takes the CFO role and Mr. Bixby moves to a board seat.
Also watch forA company filing delays or changes the CFO handoff, or names a new successor.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $735 loss on $10,000 · 7.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,735 loss on $10,000 · 57.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A low claims-handling cost helps Lemonade serve more policyholders without matching cost growth. The Q2 ratio was 5%.
Supportive ifA reported LAE ratio stays below 7% in the next quarterly results.
Worry ifA reported LAE ratio rises to 7% or higher.