Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$53.41-3.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LMND
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 53.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 48.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LMND — CFO transition
Dated 2026-07-28
CFO — Tim Bixby: Tim Bixby is transitioning from CFO to a Board member, and Nick Stead has been appointed as the new CFO.
Why it matters: This milestone shows Lemonade's strong place in the pet insurance market.
Supportive ifPet insurance IFP exceeds $500 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifPet insurance IFP fails to reach $500 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop below 15% would signal a slowdown in revenue growth for Lemonade. This could indicate a worsening trend in the financial sector.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 15%.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 15%.
Why it matters: Higher growth spend indicates investment in customer acquisition. It can drive future revenue growth.
Watch forGrowth spend exceeds $64 million in Q3 2026.
Also watch forGrowth spend remains below $64 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Sustained growth in In Force Premium shows strong customer retention and market demand.
Supportive ifIn Force Premium reaches $1.54 billion or higher in Q3 2026.
Worry ifIn Force Premium growth falls below $1.53 billion in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$206 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $773 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,094 loss on $10,000 · 50.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates on plans and growth can affect how investors feel and stock prices.
Watch forGood news about AI skills and growth plans.
Also watch forNegative feedback or lack of clarity on growth strategies.
Why it matters: Less loss in Adjusted EBITDA shows better cost control. This can help the finances.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA loss gets much smaller compared to past quarters.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss gets bigger or stays the same.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows better financial health. It indicates the company is managing its costs well.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations has been positive for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifCash flow from operations has been negative for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Positive Adjusted EBITDA shows that management is making progress. This is a key step.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA loss of less than ($20) million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA loss worse than ($23) million.
Why it matters: A low LAE ratio shows good claims handling. This helps make more money.
Supportive ifLAE ratio stays below 6% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLAE ratio rises above 6% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This agreement helps fund growth. It is important for expanding operations and gaining customers.
Supportive ifA formal announcement will confirm the deal with Hannover Re.
Worry ifA delay or cancellation of the deal with Hannover Re.