Manhattan Bridge Capital Inc (LOAN)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.08-0.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Manhattan Bridge Capital earns steady income from mortgage loans. Its price-to-earnings ratio is about 10.7, near peers. The company has a share buyback program, supporting shareholder returns. Credit agreements are stable, helping manage debt.
Revenue is expected to decline about 3.5% next year. The company faces elevated risk and fragile quality signals. Legal and credit issues could pressure cash flow and earnings.
The market prices in about a 4% revenue decline and a price roughly 14% below our valuation. Our view aligns with this cautious outlook given the company's challenges.
Breaks if: Material credit agreement breaches or suspension of buybacks
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.40 in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below -5% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. However, the current thesis is under pressure due to fragile earnings quality and recent mixed performance signals.
The valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that the market is not fully pricing in potential risks. The fragility in earnings execution is acknowledged but not seen as overly expensive.
Fundamentals may face challenges in the near term due to a high probability of an earnings miss, especially given the company's smaller size and the industry's high miss rate. Recent performance has been neutral, indicating that while the company is performing decently, it is not showing strong momentum.
The thesis hinges on the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, which could provide a tailwind for LOAN and the broader Real Estate sector. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like AGNC, DX, and ARR will be crucial, as their earnings results could influence LOAN's trajectory.
In the 1 to 3 year view, LOAN's stability is challenged by sector headwinds and earnings risks, but its valuation remains attractive compared to peers. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.