Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
LOAR HOLDINGS INC (LOAR)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$69.72+1.90%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.62 → 1.61 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LOAR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain adjusted EBITDA margin near 40% in 2026 | The company aims to keep its profit margin near 40%. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 35% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Adjusted EBITDA Margin – approximately 40%.” “• Adjusted EBITDA Margin – approximately 40%.” Gross profit was $91.202 million in 2026-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented industrial business with recent strong financial performance and robust earnings quality. Its long-term thesis is intact, though elevated risk and a headwind from the sector backdrop make the outlook less settled.
LOAR is expensive versus peers, with a 2.25 premium and valuation driven by a re-rating, meaning investors appear to expect continued strong execution. The expectations gap is negative, though model confidence is low; the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified and fragility is low.
Near term, revenue growth and the 2026 guidance increase support the business trajectory: management raised its full-year revenue outlook, while adjusted EBITDA margin reached 40.5% in the second quarter. EPS guidance also rose, but prior downward revisions and erratic earnings surprises remain risks; the latest earnings event was positive, while the sector backdrop is a headwind.
A key swing factor is whether management sustains its recently raised guidance, since a reversal could damage credibility as well as lower expectations. Over the coming quarters, results and guidance from industrial bellwethers SPCX, GE, and RTX may signal whether the sector tailwind strengthens or fades.
For the next 1 to 3 years, LOAR’s long-term thesis rests on continued growth, margin execution, and credible guidance, against elevated risk and an expensive valuation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Diluted EPS between $0.54 and $0.59 in 2026 | A primary condition in LOAR HOLDINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.54 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.54 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.18 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.54 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.18 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Diluted Earnings per share – between $0.57 and $0.62, up from between $0.54 and $0.59.” “• Diluted Earnings per share – between $0.54 and $0.59, down from between $0.60 and $0.65.” Diluted EPS was $0.18 in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue reaches at least $645 million in 2026 | A primary condition in LOAR HOLDINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $645 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $645 million in FY26 | Revenue: $171.579M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $645 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026171,579,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our outlook for the full year 2026 includes: • Net sales – between $665 million and $675 million, up from between $645 million and $655 million.” “• Net sales – between $645 million and $655 million, up from between $640 million and $650 million.” Revenue was $171.579 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.57 → $1.61 · observed estimates
$0.72B → $0.75B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.57 | $722,707,130 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.57 | $722,707,130 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.57 | $722,707,130 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.54 | $722,707,130 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.57 | $722,707,130 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.54 | $722,707,130 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.57 | $722,707,130 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.57 | $722,707,130 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.54 | $722,707,130 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.57 | $722,707,130 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.57 | $722,707,130 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.57 | $722,707,130 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.54 | $722,707,130 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.54 | $722,707,130 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.54 | $722,707,130 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.57 | $722,707,130 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.57 | $722,707,130 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.57 | $722,707,130 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.60 | $743,017,650 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.54 | $722,707,130 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.54 | $722,707,130 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.54 | $722,707,130 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.54 | $722,707,130 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.54 | $722,707,130 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.54 | $722,707,130 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.54 | $722,707,130 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.62 | $746,952,306 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.61 | $746,797,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.61 | $746,857,969 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.