LOAR HOLDINGS INC (LOAR)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$69.72+1.90%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LOAR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
LOAR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-07
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in…
Why it matters: Loar has kept its full-year margin goal near 40%. A lower Q3 margin could put that goal at risk.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is below 40%, or Loar cuts its full-year goal of about 40%.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is at least 40%, and Loar keeps its full-year goal near 40%.
Why it matters: Management linked new product work and qualification to its higher 2026 outlook. Named approvals would show progress; delays could weaken that link.
Supportive ifLoar names a new product that passed customer tests. It reports an order or revenue tied to that product.
Worry ifLoar reports a delay in qualifying a named product. Or it says no new products passed qualification.
Why it matters: New orders can add sales over several years. Loar said early orders already give it visibility to about $200 million in revenue.
Supportive ifLoar names new orders from its pipeline. It reports that five-year revenue from those orders tops $200 million.
Worry ifLoar reports no new pipeline orders. Or it lowers revenue from initial orders to below $200 million.
Why it matters: The 2026 sales outlook implies about $168 million in Q3 sales at its low end. A lower result would weaken the growth story.
Worry ifQ3 net sales are below $168 million, the rough amount needed to reach the low end of the $665 million full-year outlook.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales are at least $168 million, and Loar keeps its $665 million to $675 million full-year sales outlook.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $424 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,029 loss on $10,000 · 30.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The full-year outlook needs about $28 million in second-half net income at its low end. Interest and deal costs have weighed on net income.
Worry ifSecond-half net income is below $28 million, putting full-year net income below the $56 million low end.
Less concerning ifSecond-half net income is at least $28 million, keeping full-year net income at or above $56 million.