LOAR HOLDINGS INC (LOAR)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$67.85-2.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LOAR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LOAR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-07
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in…
Why it matters: Improving net income guidance would signal better overall financial health. It can affect stock sentiment.
Supportive ifNet income guidance revised to between $55 million and $57 million for 2026.
Worry ifNet income guidance remains at or below $53 million for 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may show LOAR will do better.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the industrials sector rises above 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth in the industrials sector remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: New products can drive future sales and support the company's growth strategy.
Watch forAnnouncement of at least one new product launch in Q3.
Also watch forNo new product announcements in Q3.
Why it matters: An upward revision would show strong demand and confidence in future sales growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises Q3 revenue guidance to more than $675 million.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers Q3 revenue guidance to under $665 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $422 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,437 loss on $10,000 · 34.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth shows people still want the product. This helps raise revenue goals for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales growth exceeds 37.8% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth falls below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can maintain growth and margins. Investors will look for signs of stability after the recent earnings miss.
Watch forQ2 net sales are over $160 million. This shows strong growth continues.
Also watch forQ2 net sales fall below $150 million, suggesting a slowdown in demand.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights on revenue growth and margin performance. This is crucial for future guidance.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 20% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if LOAR can recover from the recent earnings miss. This is crucial for investor trust.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows a profit or meets analyst expectations.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows a loss or misses analyst expectations.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would show that LOAR is on track for growth. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance to over $655M for 2026.
Worry ifManagement keeps revenue guidance at or below $645M for 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into LOAR's financial health and future outlook.
Watch forLOAR announces an earnings date with positive guidance or results.
Also watch forThe earnings date announcement has bad news or weak results.
Why it matters: A higher EPS shows better profits and good cost management.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS for Q3 2026 exceeds $0.18.
Worry ifDiluted EPS for Q3 2026 is below $0.15.
Why it matters: News on new products can show future revenue growth and market strength.
Watch forManagement shares news of successful new products or progress in Q3 2026.
Also watch forNo news or problems in new product development reported in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable organic growth shows the company can grow without acquisitions. It reflects core business strength.
Supportive ifOrganic sales growth reported at or above 11% for Q2 2026.
Worry ifOrganic sales growth reported below 10% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would confirm strong demand and support the upward revenue guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales reported at $170 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 net sales fall below $160 million.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows good cost management. It also supports growth plans.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was over 40% for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 38% for Q3.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance would indicate strong earnings growth and investor confidence.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS guidance for 2026 revised to above $0.60.
Worry ifDiluted EPS guidance remains at or below $0.59.