Lowe's (LOW)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome Improvement RetailSnapshot 2026-07-08
$212.78-3.68%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track LOW free→Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Lowe's grows revenue about 7% to 9% yearly. Profit margins stay near 11.2% to 11.4%. The company keeps capital spending steady at $2.5 billion. Recent earnings beats and dividend raises support confidence.
Revenue growth could slow below 7%. Profit margins may compress from rising costs. Capital spending might rise, pressuring cash flow. Market headwinds and sector weakness pose risks.
The price is about 19% below our fair value near $271. Analysts expect roughly 9% revenue growth. Our view aligns with this but sees risks in margin and growth sustainability.
Breaks if: CAPEX rises above $3 billion or falls below $2 billion in FY26
Lowe's plans to maintain capital expenditures at approximately $2.5 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. CAPEX guidance remains at $2.5 billion for 2026. The consistency in guidance suggests a stable capital allocation strategy, though actual CAPEX figures are not provided for comparison.
“Capital expenditures of up to $2.5 billion.”
“Capital expenditures of approximately $2.5 billion.”
“Capital expenditures of up to $2.5 billion.”
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 11.2% in FY26
Lowe's aims to maintain an operating margin between 11.2% and 11.4% for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased from $1.709B in 2025-Q4 to $2.554B in 2026-Q1, supporting the target operating margin of 11.2% to 11.4%. The trajectory is delivering on the margin goal.
“Operating income as a percentage of sales (operating margin) of 11.2% to 11.4%.”
“Operating income as a percentage of sales (operating margin) of 11.2% to 11.4%.”
“Operating income as a percentage of sales (operating margin) of 12.1% to 12.2%.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26
Lowe's aims to achieve a revenue growth of 7% to 9% for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $20.584B in 2025-Q4 to $23.078B in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the 7% to 9% growth target. The trajectory is delivering against the stated goal.
“Affirms Full Year 2026 Outlook... Total sales of $92.0 to 94.0 billion or an increase of approximately 7% to 9% compared to prior year.”
“The company is introducing its outlook for fiscal 2026, which reflects ongoing uncertainty in the home improvement market. Full Year 2026 Outlook Total sales of $92.0 to $94.0 billion or an increas…”
“Total sales of $84.5 to $85.5 billion (previously $83.5 to $84.5 billion).”