Lam Research (LRCX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$307.65+5.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Lam Research grows revenue to about $6.6 billion next quarter. Gross margin stays near 50.5%. Profit margin improves to about 36.5%. The company benefits from strong demand and a growing wafer fab equipment market.
Revenue growth may slow due to AI demand fears. Profit margins could compress if costs rise. Recent guidance cuts and a sharp stock selloff raise concerns about near-term momentum.
The stock trades about 14% above our fair value near $290, reflecting roughly 42% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 23% below the Street median, indicating some valuation risk versus consensus optimism.
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 48% next quarter
Sustain gross margin levels in the range of approximately 50.5% to 52% to support profitability.
Management stated this priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Gross margin guidance ranged from 50.0% in 2025-Q4 to 52.0% in 2026-Q2. Actual gross margin improved from 50.1% in 2025-Q2 to 51.7% in 2026-Q2, indicating progress in maintaining targeted margins.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth driven by AI demand. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, although it faces high valuation pressures.
The market currently prices LRCX at an expensive valuation compared to its peers, reflecting a stretched expectations gap. Investors may be cautious due to the elevated valuation and recent execution quality concerns.
Management is focused on increasing revenue and maintaining margins, with recent results showing strong revenue growth and progress toward operating margin targets. However, there is a mixed performance on gross margins, which could affect future stability.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet revenue and margin targets, as well as external factors like potential Fed rate cuts and performance from sector peers. Any negative guidance could significantly impact market sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Increased spending in AI-driven semiconductor manufacturing will likely boost revenue next quarter. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Gross margin 52.0% +/- 1%”
“Gross margin 50.5% +/- 1%”
“Gross margin 50.0% +/- 1%”
“Gross margin 50.6%”
Breaks if: operating margin falls below 34% next quarter
Breaks if: revenue falls below $6.0 billion next quarter
Overall, LRCX's fundamentals are strong, but the high valuation and execution risks create a cautious outlook. Not investment advice.