Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-28 · fmp
Lam Research (LRCX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$185.20-16.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.91 → 12.12 EPS · FY ending Jun 28, 2028 · 18 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LRCX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain gross margin around 50.5% | Gross margin stays near 50.5%. | Intact | gross margin falls below 48% next quarter | Gross margin: 52.3% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~50.5%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 202652.301185 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical semiconductor-equipment business with a growth component tied to AI-related demand. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent momentum has improved, but the evidence points to high risk rather than a smooth path.
The valuation evidence is mixed: the model indicates LRCX is cheap versus peers, while its peer premium measure is high and model confidence is low. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in assessment says current expectations are justified with low fragility, not broadly vulnerable to weak execution or market stress.
Over the multi-year view, recent results and management priorities support continued progress: revenue and systems revenue rose, while gross and operating margins improved from 2025-Q3 to 2026-Q3. Near term, the risk of a miss is assessed as low, but a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, especially given recent misses among industry peers.
The thesis hinges on management sustaining execution in advanced deposition and etch, margins, and investment for AI-driven demand. Near-term conditions could improve if the Fed begins cutting rates or major technology companies stabilize, but the supplied evidence does not establish when either scenario might occur.
For the 1-3 year view, LRCX has improving fundamentals and an intact thesis, balanced by high risk and uncertainty about valuation expectations. The main test is whether execution continues without a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Lam Research's published investment case. The stated target is ~36.5%. |
| Intact |
| operating margin falls below 34% next quarter |
Operating margin: 39.95% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~36.5%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 202639.950846 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue to $6.6 billion next quarter | Lam Research grows revenue to about $6.6 billion next quarter. | Intact | revenue falls below $6.0 billion next quarter | Revenue: $8.219B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.6 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 20268,219,418,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.16 → $12.12 · observed estimates
$39.28B → $42.47B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $11.16 | $39,275,982,596 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.62 | $40,376,232,956 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.62 | $40,376,232,956 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.77 | $40,996,251,207 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.74 | $41,339,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.74 | $41,339,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.74 | $41,339,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.74 | $41,339,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.74 | $41,339,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.74 | $41,339,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.74 | $41,339,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.74 | $41,339,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.74 | $41,339,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.74 | $41,339,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.74 | $41,339,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.74 | $41,339,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.74 | $41,339,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.76 | $41,389,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.76 | $41,389,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.76 | $41,389,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.76 | $41,389,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.76 | $41,389,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.76 | $41,389,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.76 | $41,389,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.76 | $41,389,812,389 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.85 | $41,677,855,868 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.85 | $41,677,855,868 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.85 | $41,677,855,868 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.85 | $41,677,855,868 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.85 | $41,677,855,868 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.85 | $41,677,855,868 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.85 | $41,677,855,868 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.85 | $41,677,855,868 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.85 | $41,677,855,868 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.85 | $41,677,855,868 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.85 | $41,677,855,868 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.85 | $41,677,855,868 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.85 | $41,677,855,868 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.86 | $41,677,848,981 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.86 | $41,677,848,981 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.91 | $41,800,601,321 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.91 | $41,800,601,321 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.91 | $41,800,601,321 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.91 | $41,800,601,321 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.91 | $41,800,601,321 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.91 | $41,800,601,321 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.91 | $41,800,601,321 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.91 | $41,800,608,521 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.91 | $41,800,608,521 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.91 | $41,800,608,521 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.91 | $41,800,608,521 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.93 | $41,880,081,015 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.93 | $41,880,081,015 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.93 | $41,880,081,015 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.95 | $41,879,503,580 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.95 | $41,879,503,580 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.94 | $41,879,503,580 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.94 | $41,879,503,580 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.95 | $41,900,155,754 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.00 | $42,056,244,952 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.00 | $42,056,244,952 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.00 | $42,056,227,331 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.00 | $42,056,227,331 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.00 | $42,056,228,698 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.00 | $42,056,228,698 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.05 | $42,190,462,031 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.07 | $42,217,763,550 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.17 | $42,615,062,991 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.20 | $42,721,592,527 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.23 | $42,721,592,527 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.23 | $42,721,592,527 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.23 | $42,721,592,527 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.23 | $42,721,592,527 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.23 | $42,635,092,527 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.23 | $42,635,092,527 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.23 | $42,635,092,527 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.12 | $42,466,536,228 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.12 | $42,466,536,228 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.12 | $42,466,536,228 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.12 | $42,466,533,228 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.12 | $42,466,533,228 | 18 / 22 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 30 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
2 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.