Lam Research (LRCX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$307.65+5.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LRCX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 52.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 37.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers
LRCX — officer change
Dated 2026-08-27
Director — Sohail U. Ahmed and Michael R. Cannon: Two directors are retiring from the board with a planned reduction in board size, which is a routine governance change rather than a loss of senior executive management.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could signal broader challenges for Lam Research.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is below its usual average.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is above its usual average.
Why it matters: Meeting this guidance shows Lam's growth strategy is working, especially with AI demand.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was $8.1 billion or more. This shows growth is strong.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was less than $7.7 billion. This shows growth is hard.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin is important for making money. Demand is growing in semiconductors.
Supportive ifGross margin was 52% or more. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifGross margin is below 50%. This shows possible cost problems.
Why it matters: This margin helps Lam run better and make more money.
Supportive ifOperating margin was 39.5% or more. This shows the company is doing well.
Worry ifOperating margin is below 36%. This suggests there are problems in operations.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$313 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $626 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,176 loss on $10,000 · 41.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: AI demand is a key driver for Lam's growth; its impact will show if the strategy works.
Watch forRevenue growth attributed to AI demand exceeds 20% year over year.
Also watch forRevenue growth attributed to AI demand is less than 10% year over year.