Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$107.25+1.26%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.21 → 4.39 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LSCC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage acquisition financing and debt levels | A supporting condition in Lattice Semiconductor's published investment case. The stated target is No material increase in debt risk or covenant breaches. | Intact | Material covenant breach or credit downgrade reported | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented semiconductor business with a durable premium, not a turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and management execution has been volatile.
LSCC is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium already reflected in its valuation. The expectations gap is negative, which points to demanding expectations; however, the evidence rates pricing fragility as low because weak execution is not joined by the full set of other fragility factors.
Near term, revenue rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026, and management reported record design wins in Q2. The stated goal of reaching a $1 billion annual revenue run rate by the end of 2026 has not yet been shown in the supplied results, and AMI’s contribution and integration progress are not quantified. A recent earnings miss and a run of misses across the industry add risk, even though the estimated near-term miss probability is low.
The multi-year case depends on continued revenue growth, progress toward the run-rate goal, and translating design wins and the AMI acquisition into measurable results. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easier rates or stabilization among major technology companies could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, LSCC’s strong recent performance keeps the long-term thesis intact, but expensive valuation, elevated risk, and limited evidence on key execution goals make the case sensitive to results and guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Lattice Semiconductor's published investment case. The stated target is ~70% gross margin. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 68% next quarter |
Gross margin: 67.39% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~70% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 202667.387084 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income increases significantly | Operating income rose from $7M to $26M in one year. | Improving | Operating income falls below $20M next 4 quarters | Operating income: $23.968M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $26M next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 202623,968,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 36% year over year | Lattice Semiconductor grows revenue about 42% year over year. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 36% next 4 quarters | Revenue growth: 118.25% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=36% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 2026118.250606 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.37 → $4.39 · observed estimates
$0.94B → $1.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.37 | $940,878,429 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.37 | $940,878,429 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.38 | $944,594,649 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.38 | $944,594,649 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.38 | $944,594,649 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.38 | $944,594,649 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.38 | $944,594,649 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.38 | $944,594,649 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.38 | $944,594,649 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.38 | $944,594,649 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.38 | $944,594,649 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.38 | $944,594,649 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.38 | $944,594,649 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.38 | $944,594,649 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.21 | $1,333,286,768 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.21 | $1,333,495,478 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.21 | $1,334,843,851 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.21 | $1,334,843,851 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.21 | $1,334,843,851 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.21 | $1,334,843,851 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.21 | $1,334,843,851 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.21 | $1,334,843,851 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.21 | $1,334,843,851 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.21 | $1,334,843,851 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.21 | $1,334,843,851 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.21 | $1,334,845,801 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.21 | $1,334,845,801 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.21 | $1,334,845,801 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.21 | $1,334,845,801 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.21 | $1,334,869,087 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.21 | $1,334,869,087 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.21 | $1,334,869,087 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.25 | $1,341,654,801 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.25 | $1,341,654,801 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.25 | $1,341,654,801 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.25 | $1,341,654,801 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.25 | $1,341,654,801 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.29 | $1,353,397,658 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.29 | $1,353,397,658 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.29 | $1,353,397,658 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.29 | $1,353,397,658 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.29 | $1,353,397,658 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.29 | $1,353,397,658 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.03 | $1,526,059,582 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.39 | $1,612,375,818 | 10 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.