Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$47.75+0.76%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.82 → 1.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LTH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Continued share buybacks | A supporting condition in Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or increase buyback activity. | Intact | Company halts or significantly reduces share buybacks | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
LTH is a growth-oriented business expanding its club base and increasing revenue from memberships and in-center offerings. Its long-term thesis is intact, though recent earnings lowered momentum and made the near-term picture more mixed.
The shares are valued at a substantial premium to peers, reflecting expectations that LTH can sustain durable growth. The model indicates an expectations gap, but its confidence is low, so the size of those expectations is uncertain.
In the multi-year view, revenue growth and club expansion are supported by rising comparable center revenue and revenue per membership. Seven of the 14 planned 2026 clubs were open by September, with one more opening in October and six still planned for the fourth quarter; net leverage also improved to 1.3 times. Near term, the October 29 earnings miss and weaker momentum are risks, even as the company’s recent financial performance remains strong overall.
The thesis depends on LTH completing its club-opening plan, sustaining membership and in-center revenue growth, and maintaining financial discipline. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility, while results and guidance from sector bellwethers could signal whether the industry tailwind is strengthening or fading.
For the next one to three years, LTH has evidence of operating growth and an intact long-term thesis, but its premium valuation leaves less room for execution setbacks. The fresh earnings miss makes follow-through on guidance and expansion especially important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income rose to $134.8 million in Q1, showing good profit growth. |
| Intact |
| Net income falls below $88 million in Q1 2026 |
Net income: $106.493M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $88 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 2026106,493,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income increases to at least $134.8 million | Operating income rose to $134.8 million in Q1, showing good profit growth. | Intact | Operating income falls below $134.8 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income: $158.005M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$134.8 million operating income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 2026158,005,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue growth near 13.6% | A primary condition in Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=13.6% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 13.6% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 14.17% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=13.6% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202614.166632 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.95 → $1.86 · observed estimates
$3.72B → $3.80B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.95 | $3,721,824,390 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.95 | $3,721,824,390 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.95 | $3,721,824,390 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.73 | $3,721,845,777 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.95 | $3,721,824,390 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.95 | $3,717,694,460 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.95 | $3,717,694,460 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.97 | $3,724,656,030 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.76 | $3,737,945,542 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.97 | $3,724,656,030 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.01 | $3,742,821,780 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.01 | $3,742,821,780 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.03 | $3,758,831,070 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.03 | $3,749,675,280 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.80 | $3,746,789,740 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.80 | $3,746,789,740 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.80 | $3,746,789,740 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.03 | $3,758,831,070 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.80 | $3,746,789,740 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.80 | $3,746,789,740 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.80 | $3,746,789,740 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.80 | $3,746,789,740 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.80 | $3,746,789,740 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.80 | $3,746,789,740 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.80 | $3,746,789,740 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.80 | $3,746,789,740 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.82 | $3,768,953,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.82 | $3,768,953,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.82 | $3,768,953,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.82 | $3,768,953,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.82 | $3,768,953,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.82 | $3,770,741,574 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.82 | $3,773,243,860 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.82 | $3,772,922,789 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.82 | $3,772,922,789 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.82 | $3,772,988,789 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.82 | $3,772,988,789 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.82 | $3,772,988,789 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.82 | $3,772,988,789 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.82 | $3,772,988,789 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.82 | $3,772,988,789 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.82 | $3,772,988,789 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.82 | $3,773,631,646 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.82 | $3,773,631,646 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.82 | $3,773,631,646 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.82 | $3,770,631,708 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.82 | $3,770,631,708 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.84 | $3,787,176,216 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.86 | $3,796,785,302 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.86 | $3,796,785,302 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.86 | $3,796,785,302 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.86 | $3,796,785,302 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.86 | $3,796,785,302 | 8 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.