Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$43.23+0.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LTH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LTH — director transition
Dated 2026-08-27
Director — J. Kristofer Galashan, Paul Hackwell: Two directors resigned from the board of directors, representing a change in board composition but not a loss of senior operating executives.
Why it matters: A drop would show profit problems. It may hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNet income reported below $340 million for the full year 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income reported above $345 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Opening new clubs is key to Life Time's growth strategy. It shows demand for their services.
Supportive ifLife Time opens at least 7 new clubs by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifLife Time fails to open the planned 14 new clubs by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Net income trends show if the company can keep making a profit. This impacts investor trust and stock value.
Worry ifNet income in Q2 2026 increases compared to Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income in Q2 2026 decreases compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Net income trends show how healthy the business is. A drop may worry investors.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 is higher than $88.1 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q2 is lower than $80 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$129 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $320 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,633 loss on $10,000 · 16.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows the company is managing costs well. This means more profit.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income rose to over $134.8 million compared to last year.
Worry ifQ2 operating income falls or stays under $134.8 million.
Why it matters: Opening 6 to 7 new centers in Q4 will show growth momentum. This is key for revenue and membership growth.
Supportive ifThe company opens 6 to 7 new large-format centers in Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe company fails to open any new centers in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Opening new centers is key to Life Time's growth strategy. More openings signal strong execution.
Supportive ifLife Time opens 6 to 7 new clubs in Q3 2026 as planned.
Worry ifFewer than 6 new clubs open in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: High capital expenditures show strong growth. They also show investment in new facilities.
Supportive ifTotal spending will be over $910 million in 2026.
Worry ifTotal spending will be below $885 million in 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may show problems in operations. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNet income reported below $88.1 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifNet income reported above $90 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for Life Time's financial health and reflects the success of their business model.
Supportive ifTotal revenue reaches at least $3,350 million for the full year 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenue falls below $3,350 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Spending plans affect growth and updates. Meeting guidance shows good use of funds.
Watch forTotal spending plans are $885 million to $910 million for 2026.
Also watch forTotal spending plans are below $885 million for 2026.
Why it matters: High capital spending shows a commitment to growth. This affects future revenue.
Watch forTotal capital spending will be $885 million or more in 2026.
Also watch forTotal capital spending will be less than $875 million in 2026.
Why it matters: News about the buyback program can show management's trust in the company's value.
Supportive ifThey announced more shares bought back under the $500 million program.
Worry ifNo updates or share repurchases reported in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This growth range shows strong performance. It also shows good member engagement, which helps revenue.
Supportive ifComparable center revenue growth reported within the range of 7.9% to 8.3%.
Worry ifCenter revenue growth is below 7.9%.
Why it matters: Opening new clubs is key to Life Time's growth strategy and revenue increase.
Supportive ifAt least 7 new large-format clubs opened by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 7 new clubs opened by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: This program shows that management believes in the company's value. It can help share price.
Supportive ifLife Time repurchases at least $200 million worth of shares by the end of 2026.
Worry ifLife Time does not repurchase shares or cuts back on the buyback amount.
Why it matters: Higher net income is important for growth and for keeping investors confident.
Supportive ifNet income increases by more than 15% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifNet income decreases or shows no growth in the next earnings report.