Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.62-13.19%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for LUNR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash flow from operations improves toward positive | The company is focused on improving its operating income and cash flow. | Broken | Cash flow loss worsens beyond -$55M in FY26 | Cash from operations: $-59.802M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash flow loss narrows from -$54.8M in Q1 2026 toward breakeven by end of 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026-59,802,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making growth business whose expansion depends on contract awards, backlog, and acquisitions. The thesis state is watch, though the signal recently shifted from cautious to mixed.
The valuation is at a premium to peers, while the evidence labels expectations as justified and fragility as low. The expectations gap is negative, but confidence in that measure is low, so the market’s assumptions are not clear-cut.
Near term, revenue and backlog growth support the expansion story: Q2 revenue was higher than Q1, awards reached $920 million, and backlog reached $1.8 billion. But operating loss widened, the latest quarter missed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind; positive full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance remains a key execution test.
The multi-year view depends on LUNR converting awards and backlog into revenue while controlling losses and integrating its acquisitions. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the setup, while continued strong results from sector bellwethers could support the broader Industrials backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies would remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, LUNR has evidence of growing demand and expansion, but its loss-making results, recent miss, and execution risks leave the thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income improves toward breakeven |
| The company is focused on improving its operating income and cash flow. |
| Broken |
| Operating loss worsens beyond -$40M in FY26 |
Operating income: $-47.136M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss narrows from -$39.2M in Q1 2026 toward breakeven by end of 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026-47,136,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $950M in 2026 | A primary condition in Intuitive Machines, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$950M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $900M in FY26 | Revenue: $206.168M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$950M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026206,168,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.05 → $-0.21 · observed estimates
$1.15B → $1.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.05 | $1,150,706,280 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.05 | $1,150,706,280 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.05 | $1,150,706,280 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.05 | $1,154,460,494 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.05 | $1,154,460,494 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.05 | $1,150,706,280 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.05 | $1,150,706,280 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.05 | $1,150,706,280 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.00 | $1,144,334,875 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.05 | $1,150,706,280 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.05 | $1,157,225,490 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.05 | $1,157,225,490 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.01 | $1,150,039,125 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.01 | $1,150,039,125 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.01 | $1,150,039,125 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.05 | $1,157,225,490 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.05 | $1,157,225,490 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.01 | $1,150,039,125 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.05 | $1,157,225,490 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.05 | $1,157,225,490 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.01 | $1,150,039,125 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.01 | $1,150,039,125 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.01 | $1,150,039,125 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.01 | $1,150,039,125 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.01 | $1,150,039,125 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.01 | $1,150,039,125 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.20 | $1,144,866,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.20 | $1,144,866,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.20 | $1,144,866,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.20 | $1,144,866,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.20 | $1,144,866,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.20 | $1,144,866,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.20 | $1,144,866,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.20 | $1,144,866,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.20 | $1,144,866,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.20 | $1,144,866,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.20 | $1,144,866,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.20 | $1,144,866,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.21 | $1,141,561,522 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.21 | $1,141,574,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.21 | $1,141,544,370 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.21 | $1,141,544,370 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.