Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.81+0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LUNR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -36.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 89.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 125.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LUNR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-13
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 13, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the Company's press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as…
Why it matters: Strong performance from peers can indicate market trends. This can affect LUNR's outlook.
Watch forAt least two peers show revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Also watch forAt least two peers report revenue decline year over year.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that contracts are successful. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue from strategic contracts goes up by more than 10% each quarter.
Worry ifRevenue from strategic contracts goes down or stays the same each quarter.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company can invest and pay debts. This is key for stability.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations increases by more than 10% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations goes down or stays the same each quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows they are managing costs well and making more money.
Supportive ifOperating income was above -$30 million for Q2.
Worry ifOperating income got worse, going beyond -$40 million for Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$418 on $10,000 · ±4.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $964 loss on $10,000 · 9.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,508 loss on $10,000 · 75.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If this deal closes, Intuitive Machines can improve space communications. This could help them earn more money.
Supportive ifA press release will confirm the Goonhilly Earth Station deal is complete.
Worry ifThe deal does not close or has big delays.
Why it matters: Progress on this deal could improve capabilities and increase revenue.
Supportive ifLook for news on successful integration or revenue from Goonhilly.
Worry ifWatch for delays or problems in the acquisition process.
Why it matters: Successful integration will improve service. It will also help future growth.
Supportive ifThere are good updates on combining Goonhilly and COMSAT.
Worry ifThere are reports of problems with the integration. This affects how services work.
Why it matters: The launch date shows how well Intuitive Machines is doing with its lunar mission.
Supportive ifAn official announcement of the IM-3 launch date before the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo announcement of the IM-3 launch date by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Details on this contract may show future revenue. It could also grow national security revenue.
Watch forManagement gives good updates on the AMDT3 contract.
Also watch forManagement reports issues or delays with the AMDT3 contract.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows that costs are managed well. This also means better efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income reported at less than -$30M, showing progress in cost control.
Worry ifOperating income worse than -$39.2M shows ongoing cost problems.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is controlling costs well. This can bring in investors.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up by more than 5% each quarter.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or does not change each quarter.
Why it matters: Positive adjusted EBITDA shows progress. This means the company makes more money.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is positive. This shows the company is doing better.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is still negative. This shows the company has money problems.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows that working capital is managed well. It also means better operations.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations below -$40M shows cash management issues.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported worse than -$54.8M, indicating cash flow issues.
Why it matters: Winning these contracts would show high demand for Intuitive Machines' services and grow its backlog.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of contract awards for CLPS and LTV proposals within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo contract awards announced for CLPS and LTV proposals in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong contract awards signal ongoing demand and support revenue growth. This is key for future performance.
Supportive ifQ3 contract awards were over $300 million.
Worry ifQ3 contract awards fall below $200 million.
Why it matters: A growing backlog means strong future revenue. It shows the company can win contracts.
Supportive ifBacklog is over $1.8 billion.
Worry ifBacklog decreases or stays below $1.8 billion.