Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.81+0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put LUNR beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Aerospace & Defense is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Cash flow from operations improves toward positive: Operating cash flow -$54.8M vs target breakeven.
View ThesisRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 12%, softest on returns on capital.
View QualityManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 4% on a typical day and fell roughly 75% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskLUNR's growth depends on converting its record backlog into revenue. The company must maintain its revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion. Revenue grew 309% year over year, but the last quarter missed expectations. LUNR trades at 4.9× price-to-sales, above the 3.3× peer median. This suggests the price reflects modest growth expectations. The primary risk is the recent earnings miss, which raises concerns. Our read remains provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. LUNR is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 9 analysts currently covering LUNR (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for LUNR in the last 4 months.
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Compare LUNR with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUNR Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Aerospace & Defense — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put LUNR next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase revenue through strategic contracts
Optimistic guidance supports revenue growth objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $14.81
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $14.81.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Threatens: Increase revenue through strategic contracts and backlog growth
New contract does not meet revenue expectations.
Threatens: Achieve positive adjusted EBITDA and improve operating income
Earnings miss raises concerns about achieving positive adjusted EBITDA.
Advances: Increase revenue through strategic contracts and backlog growth
Record revenue supports growth objectives and backlog expansion.
Threatens: Increase revenue through strategic contracts and backlog growth
Dilution impacts revenue growth potential despite backlog.
Advances: Increase revenue through strategic contracts and backlog growth
Record backlog and revenue support growth objectives.
Advances: Increase revenue through strategic contracts
Reaffirming revenue outlook supports growth objectives.
Advances: Increase revenue through strategic contracts
Record revenue supports growth objective.