Southwest Airlines (LUV)
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$46.42+6.84%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · LUV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 11.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
LUV — debt issuance
Dated 2026-11-02
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On November 2, 2026, Southwest Airlines Co. (the “Company”) completed the public offering of $1,250,000,000 aggregate principal amount of debt securities, consisting of $600,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 5.750% Notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes”) and $650,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 6.000% Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes” and together with the 2029 Notes, the “Notes”). The Notes were issued under an indent…
Why it matters: Southwest's costs rose each quarter, though the rate slowed. Costs above its Q4 range could squeeze margins.
Worry ifQ4 2026 CASM-X growth is above 4.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 CASM-X growth is 4.0% to 4.5% year over year, or lower.
Why it matters: Southwest lowered its capacity growth plan as it focused on higher-return markets. Growth above the plan could test that discipline.
Worry ifSouthwest reports that 2026 capacity growth is above 1.2%.
Less concerning ifSouthwest reports 2026 capacity growth at or below 1.2%.
Why it matters: The new lounges are part of Southwest's customer offer. An opening tests whether the plan moves from announcement to service.
Supportive ifSouthwest opens an Icon Lounge and confirms guests can use it in 2027.
Worry ifSouthwest delays the first lounge beyond 2027 or cancels the launch.
Why it matters: Southwest plans to share multi-year targets and how it plans to meet them. Clear targets can test its earnings and margin plans.
Watch forAt the March 2, 2027 event, Southwest gives clear multi-year financial targets and a path to reach them.
Also watch forSouthwest cancels or delays the event, or gives no clear multi-year targets.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $382 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,347 loss on $10,000 · 33.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Southwest tied its outlook to strong demand and fares. Growth below its 19% low end would weaken that view.
Worry ifQ4 2026 RASM growth is below 19% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 RASM growth is 19% to 21% year over year, or higher.
Why it matters: Southwest cut its full-year profit range after Q2. A result below the new low end would show more pressure from fuel or revenue.
Worry ifSouthwest reports 2026 adjusted EPS below $2.60.
Less concerning ifSouthwest reports 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.60 to $2.85, or higher.