Southwest Airlines (LUV)
NYSEIndustrialsAirlinesSnapshot 2026-07-08
$48.66-1.55%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $48.66. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $49 LUV trades at 31× p/e, in line with its 31× p/e peer median, and our $50 fair value agrees. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $36–$65. Not investment advice.
$36.10 – $65.00 (median $53.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $53.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $7.35 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $21.97 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $66.97 | 18.7 | 3.89 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $48.51 | 30.9 | 1.57 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $202.27 | 3.5 | 57.42 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $14.53 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $47.97 | 30.6 | 1.57 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $51.09 | 30.9 | 1.65 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $174.74 | 30.9 | 5.66 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $279.39 | 3.5 | 79.32 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $172.80 | 30.6 | 5.66 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $215.73 | 30.9 | 6.98 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $344.93 | 3.5 | 97.92 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $213.33 | 30.6 | 6.98 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.