Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Macerich (MAC)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.02-3.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.15 → 0.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MAC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage dilution from equity offerings | A supporting condition in Macerich's published investment case. The stated target is no further large equity dilution. | Intact | additional large equity offerings announced | 0 large equity offerings vs 0 target News and filings show debt issuance and buybacks, with no announcements of large equity offerings. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a property recovery and execution story, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis state is insufficient to judge from recent financial history, though company momentum improved and the signal shifted from cautious to mixed.
The valuation model indicates MAC trades at a premium to peers, with optionality, or potential future benefits, driving the gap. The model has low confidence, and the evidence does not clearly establish that current expectations are justified.
Near term, leasing and net operating income are showing progress: portfolio NOI grew 3.8%, the leasing speedometer reached 88%, and the signed-not-open pipeline expanded. Management is also making balance-sheet progress, but MAC remains loss-making and the evidence notes recent misses in a high-miss-rate industry.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued leasing and NOI growth, delivery of the new-store pipeline, and further balance-sheet strengthening. Fed rate cuts could support the sector, while a guidance cut or weaker results from major real estate peers could remove a sector tailwind.
For the 1-3 year view, execution has improved, but losses, recent-miss risk, and a peer valuation premium leave important questions unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Macerich focuses on boosting cash flow, which rose from $50M to $77M recently. |
| Intact |
| cash from operating activities falls below $50M |
Cash from operations: $49.762M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $77.4M cash from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 202649,762,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduction in net income losses | A primary condition in Macerich's published investment case. The stated target is net income loss improves toward <$18.7M. | Intact | net income loss worsens beyond $36.4M | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth or stabilization | A primary condition in Macerich's published investment case. The stated target is >= $241.5M quarterly revenue. | Intact | quarterly revenue falls below $241.5M | Revenue: $249.707M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $241.5M quarterly revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026249,707,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.12 → $0.20 · observed estimates
$1.05B → $1.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.12 | $1,050,609,445 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.11 | $1,022,213,450 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.11 | $1,022,213,450 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.11 | $1,022,213,450 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.11 | $1,022,213,450 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.11 | $1,022,213,450 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.11 | $1,022,213,450 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.11 | $1,022,213,450 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.12 | $1,050,609,449 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.11 | $1,022,213,450 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.11 | $1,022,213,450 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.11 | $1,022,213,450 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.12 | $1,050,609,449 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.12 | $1,050,609,449 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.11 | $1,050,062,038 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.11 | $1,050,062,038 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.11 | $1,050,062,038 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.11 | $1,050,062,038 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.04 | $1,035,043,310 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.11 | $1,050,062,038 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.11 | $1,050,062,038 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.11 | $1,050,062,038 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.11 | $1,050,062,038 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.11 | $1,050,062,038 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.11 | $1,050,062,038 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.11 | $1,050,062,038 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.11 | $1,040,526,734 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.11 | $1,040,733,982 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.11 | $1,040,733,982 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.11 | $1,040,733,982 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.11 | $1,040,733,982 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.11 | $1,040,733,982 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.11 | $1,040,733,982 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.11 | $1,040,733,982 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.11 | $1,040,733,982 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.11 | $1,045,000,164 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.11 | $1,045,000,164 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.11 | $1,045,000,164 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.11 | $1,045,000,164 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.11 | $1,045,000,164 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.11 | $1,053,193,773 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.11 | $1,053,193,773 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.13 | $1,053,193,773 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.13 | $1,053,193,773 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.13 | $1,053,193,773 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.13 | $1,053,193,773 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.13 | $1,053,193,773 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.13 | $1,053,193,773 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.13 | $1,053,193,773 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.13 | $1,053,193,773 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.13 | $1,053,193,773 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.13 | $1,053,193,773 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.13 | $1,053,193,773 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.13 | $1,053,193,773 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.13 | $1,059,220,350 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.13 | $1,059,220,350 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.13 | $1,059,220,350 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.13 | $1,061,618,570 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.13 | $1,061,618,570 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.13 | $1,061,618,570 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.13 | $1,061,618,570 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.13 | $1,061,618,570 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.13 | $1,064,218,219 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.13 | $1,064,183,338 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.13 | $1,064,183,338 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.13 | $1,064,183,338 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.13 | $1,064,183,338 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.13 | $1,064,183,338 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.09 | $1,064,183,338 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.15 | $1,064,273,328 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.15 | $1,064,273,328 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.15 | $1,064,273,328 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.15 | $1,064,273,328 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.15 | $1,064,273,328 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.15 | $1,064,273,328 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.15 | $1,064,273,328 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.15 | $1,064,273,328 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.15 | $1,064,273,328 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.15 | $1,061,588,023 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.15 | $1,061,588,023 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.15 | $1,061,588,023 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.15 | $1,061,588,023 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.15 | $1,061,588,023 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.15 | $1,061,588,023 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.15 | $1,061,588,023 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.18 | $1,071,109,647 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.18 | $1,071,109,647 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.18 | $1,071,109,647 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.20 | $1,067,326,421 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.20 | $1,067,326,421 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.20 | $1,067,326,421 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.20 | $1,066,663,646 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.20 | $1,066,663,646 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.20 | $1,066,663,646 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.20 | $1,066,663,646 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.20 | $1,066,663,646 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.20 | $1,066,663,646 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.20 | $1,066,663,646 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.20 | $1,066,663,646 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.20 | $1,066,663,646 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.20 | $1,066,663,646 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.20 | $1,066,663,646 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.20 | $1,066,663,646 | 6 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.