Reading MAC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MAC free→Reading MAC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MAC free→NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact MAC's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.45. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 MAC trades at 6× p/s, in line with its 6× p/s peer median. Our $23 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $19–$27. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 11% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Not enough signal yet.
Over the trailing year it converted -1.69x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.07 → $-0.06 (+21.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$145.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$330.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,279.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Ongoing net income losses show that there are problems with making money.
Confirms:Net income losses in Q2 exceed $10 million.
Disproves:Net income losses are reported below $5 million in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MAC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On May 6, 2026, The Macerich Company (the “Company”) released its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026 by posting to its website a financial supplement containing financial and operating information of the Company (“Earnings Results & Supplemental Information”) and such Earnings Results & Supplemental Information is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The Earnings Results & Supplemental Information included as an exhibit with…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$19.00 – $27.00 (median $24.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Retail REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MAC Macerich | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 0 of 100 | full | moderate |
SPG Simon Property Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | low |
O Realty Income | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | fair | low |
KIM Kimco Realty | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | full | low |
REG Regency Centers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through new store leases and other initiatives.
Aim to boost cash flow from operations to support financial stability.
Implement strategies to reduce net income losses and improve profitability.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows that management is working to increase revenue.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth means stronger demand. It shows management is doing a better job.
Confirms:Revenue growth turns positive year over year, exceeding $261.70M.
Disproves:Revenue continues to decline year over year, staying below $241.54M.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps the company meet its financial goals and stay healthy.
Confirms:Cash from operations is over $30 million in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations is below $20 million in Q2.
OTHER EVENTS. On May 13, 2026, The Macerich Company (the “Company”) completed the issuance and sale of 22,080,000 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.01 per share (the “Common Stock”), pursuant to an underwriting agreement, dated as of May 11, 2026 (the “Underwriting Agreement”), by and among the Company and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, as representative of the several underwriters named on Schedule I thereto (the “Underwriters”). The Company granted the Underwriters…